Israel and the Gaza Strip

Another violent and bloody confrontation between Hamas and Israel.
Hundreds of rockets shot into Israel while Irael retaliates.
When might this end?
There is no real solution to all this.
The constant war of attrition is unaceptable and unsustainable.
Reentering the strip and staying there after leaving it many years ago will be very dificult as Israel will take responsibility for all the mess in the strip.
And do it goes another br? rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrround of violence that goes nowhere.
Eventually the IDF will need to retake the strip and when that happens it will be ugly very ugly.
It was close this time.
Very close

They are talking again

Special envoy of President Trump Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt continue to talk to all sides.
Mr Kushner has even said there will be a new "peace plan" in four months.
The question arises is how long can everyone collectively bang his head against the wall.?
Nothing will happen in four months.
Nothing.
Israel will not pull back to the 1967 borders and will not relinquish territory in Judea and Samaria.
It just won't happen.
Kushner wants to make a regional agreement of sorts that may pump some life into the process.
This agreement will talk about money for the Palestinian authority.
No more and no less.
It will not speak about any withdrawal from any settlements and probably not even say to stop settlement activity.
Hard to see how this is going forward.
The Israeli prime minister has just said there will never be any Israeli withdrawal from any settlement.
Well thats great!
The Arab side demands a COMPLETE withdrawal from all of Judea and Samaria.
Seems like a big gap to me.
An impossible gap that many still think will be settled.
It will not and cannot.
For things to stay the same is not a solution either.
Let's see what happens.

What now ?

As things look now the next step seems to be the annexing of the C area that borders Jerusalem.
This will happen in next few weeks as a law will be introduced in the Knesset.
The dilemma as o what exactly should be annexed at first will be severe.
There is a large consensus as to the need to annex but little as to how this annexing should be done.
There needs to be a four year plan that takes advantage of the Trump administration.
These laws will all be challenged in the supreme court of Israel which of late has become more conservative towards laws of this kind.
The process has to start now as these type of annexations are complicated and will take time to implement.
The American embassy will be moved to Jerusalem in the next half year as President Trump will not sign off to delay the moving the way former presidents have done.
He truly would like to make the move but has been told this might endanger lives of Americans around the world.
It will happen nonetheless.
We need to sit back and wait to see how all this develops.

Here we go again ( maybe)

It does not take much to ignite riots and even another intifada in Judea Samaria and Jerusalem.
A minister in the so called Palestinian government has died of an apparent heart attack during a violent demonstration with Israeli soldiers in Samaria.
He can be seen sitting down apparently in the middle of a heart attack after a confrontation with the IDF.
The Palestinian authority has apparently suspended or is threatening to suspend security coordination with Israel as a result of this death.
In addition they have announced a three day mourning period.
This might be the spark that will start the Intifada all are talking about.
The Arab Palestinians could not pick a better time for this as Israels leadership is embroiled in a bitter political fight leading up to elections in three months.
The coming hours and funeral for Ziad Abu Ein will be an indicator if this is the spark that will let all hell loose.
This comes as a backdrop to a showdown at the UN over a resolution demanding Israel withdraw completely to pre 67 lines in 23 months.
The very worst is yet to come.

The new deadline

The Palestinians are doing it again.
Jordan on behalf of the Palestinians will put forward a resolution for a Palestinian state on all territory captured by Israel in the six-day war.
There will be a clear timetable for this, November 2016.
This is a mere 23 months away.
Where are all the Jews from Judea Samaria and east Jerusalem to go in 23 months?
There are about 650,000 Jews in those areas, does anyone care?
The truth is that those Jews are not going anywhere and everyone knows it.
It is a game that all are playing a very dangerous game indeed.
In the next 23 months there will be probably another 100,000 Jews in these areas.
Conventional wars have not had the desired effect so diplomatic wars are being tried.
It is difficult to gauge what might happen as this date gets closer.
Some possibilities.
The US will stop funding the Palestinian authority which will result in almost complete collapse.
They may get some Arab backing to shore them up for a bit but history has shown that these pledges are not consistent.
Israel will be ostracized by some of the world and have some economic stress.
This will dissipate as Jews around the world will rally for Israel as in other crisis.
By that time parts of Judea and Samaria will be officially annexed to Israel as Jerusalem was and the Golan Heights.
It's going to get very ugly indeed

Is doing nothing a strategy?

Nothing seems to be the best word to describe The peace process between Israel and Palestinians.
Its all about nothing.
Nothing is often hard to sustain especially when everyone has been fed the lie and joke of a two state solution.
It is hard to admit that it is all rubbish and never really had a chance to begin with.
So what the next best option?
Just continue to say two state solution though all realize already that it will never happen.
A true leader says the truth to the world.
But Bibbi is a tactician and knows that it is just lip service at this point.
There has been endless negotiations and endless meetings that have gone nowhere.
Even wars and intifadas that have come and gone.
Why does the Leader of Israel continue to say the mantra of a two state solution?
Because he has nothing better to say.
The next prime minister may say something else I suppose.
Its all very bizarre.

Now what?

The Israeli prime minister has told the world that the of the leader of the Palestinian national movement is anti-Semite who denies the Holocaust.
It's hard to see negotiations with someone like that.
There has just been a war in the Gaza strip that does not seem to be restarting so fast.
So what now?
It has become clear that the stark reality is nothing will happen.
Not on the negotiation front at least.
There is not anyone to negotiate with and nothing to negotiate on.
Its all make believe as there never was real negotiations and never will be.
You see the Arabs of greater Israel or Palestinians do not want a state next to Israel, they want a state instead of Israel.
The fact that they demand the uprooting of 600,000 people from their homes in Judea Samaria and Jerusalem which is of course impossible shows that this is all the theater of the absurd.
Their never was a Palestine and never will be one.
Their was never a Palestinian people and never will be.
It's just a big joke.
Very bad joke.

The Palestinian leaders speech at UN

Some were shocked at the severity of the outrageous diatribe of Machmoud Abbas at the United Nations last week.
Others like myself were not.
Those who held out some hope on conciliation with this so called pragmatic leader were shocked back into reality.
He is just another link in the chain of small and big anti-semites that have threatened the Jewish people over the years.
Clearly form his point of view a Jew may not defend himself from attack, he must die or be thrown into the sea.
He has never really changed tactics just sometimes the tone in trying to replace Israel with Palestine.
Incredibly enough the knowledge that this will not happen does not deter leaders like Abbas from continuing.
What he is doing and will continue to do is to perpetuate the conflict.
He knows full well that Israel cannot and will not return to the pre 1967 borders.
He knows full well that it is impossible to relocate over 600,000 people from their homes in Judea and Samaria.
He also knows that there will never be a Palestinian state.
He does not want one.
He is where exactly he wants to be.
Which is to perpetuate this conflict forever.
He receives a lavish salary and travels the world and nothing moves or will ever move.
It is like a soap opera that really never changes and whenever you return everything is the same.
Israel should annex parts of Judea and Samaria and offer partial citizenship to Arabs living in those areas.
There are many Arabs that have had good relations with the Jewish state and deserve consideration for partial and even full citizenship at some point.
There are those that cannot stop talking about a two state solution.
Its just talk a lot of talk.
To bad that so many people have to suffer.
The new/ old Middle East.

Israel- surrounded on all sides

Those who would say that Israel is surrounded on all sides by its enemies were paranoid.
Peace treaties were signed with Egypt and Jordan.
A new era was at hand, a new middle east.
Those that said that real danger lurked everywhere were ridiculed.
Lets look at the situation right now.
On Israels southern flank there is the Hamas which has been at war with Israel off and on since it took over the Gaza strip.
There had just been a major conflict that has may start again at any time.
In the north there is the Hizbullah that Israel has also been at war intermittingly and another seems likely very soon.
In fact the leader of that organization has said in the last few days that war was imminent and that his organization would even capture parts of the Galilee.
Now to the east is Jordan. That seems safe, right?
Very safe as long as it is not taken over.
The new Islamic Republic has its sites on Jordan.
and Then you know who.
To the west things do not change.
It is the sea where the paranoids fear getting thrown into.
Did I say we are surrounded on all sides?.
The new old Middle East.

Rosh Hashana the Jewish New Year

Fw have noticed that the cease fire declared after that last war in Gaza is set to expire in a few weeks.
Ostensibly the Hamas has had few real gains from all the efforts in the last war.
They have not had the borders open up more or any other of the demands put forward.
That might mean further rocket attacks into Israel.
Somehow despite the threats this seems unlikely as both sides seem tired of continuing to bomb each other.
apparently Isis has stolen the spotlight from everyone!
Asr they continue to execute westerners no one seems to care that much over developments in the Gaze strip.
That probably the main reason that Hamas will not resume its rocket attacks on Israel.
The red herring in all this that the hatred of the Hamas and Fatah is great, very great.
They would like nothing more than to disrupt the Jewish holiday season that approaches.
So you never know what might happen.
the war does not need to start, it ostensibly never ended

The Lull before the storm

Israel has very many enemies. Lets list just a few.
Hamas, Jihad Islami, Hizbullah, Al quida, ISIS, and the list goes on.
These enemies are on all of Israels borders.
The Hamas and Jihad Islami on the southern border. The Hizbullah on the northern border.
ISIS after it takes over Jordan ( which may happen soon ) will face Israel on its eastern border.
When and if this happens Israel will literally be surrounded by its enemies with its back to the sea.
This temporary lull is very misleading to those who really understand what Israel is up against.
Some of these groups hate each other and would stop them from attacking Israel together, for now at least.
In the Arab world treaties are made very quickly when it comes to attacking Israel.
Nonetheless the danger that lurks on all the borders is real and imminent.
Israel is readying itself for worst case scenario.
That would be war on all fronts at the same time.
That would necessitate the entire call up of reserves and possibly even emergency call up of those already let go of army service.
Sadly Israels military is not as feared as it once was.
For the first time troops from the US will be involved as vital American interests will be at stake.
The storm is brewing...
It won't be pretty.

Cease fire

Its as official as it gets here in the middle east.
There is a cease fire, for the mean time at least.
The Prime minister in his usual smooth public appearance explained why Israel won this war and why Hamas lost.
The Head of the army looked haggard and shell shocked.
He did not look like a winning general in a war.
He was trying to explain why Israel won this war.
When there is a decisive victory explanations are unnecessary.
Douglass Macarthur did not need to explain why the US defeated Japan in WW2 not did Israel after the six day war.
No one really believes Israel won this conflict.
The way things go here in the middle east is that when Israel does not win decisively that means she has lost.
The Arab world had grown accustomed to massive defeats at the hands of Israel and in the last few conflicts improved greatly.
The Prime minister clearly hinted that negotiations in another month on outstanding issues would go no where.
Israel may not need to wait too long for a new conflict to develop.
This ongoing conflict is like a tinderbox, ready to ignite at any time. All side are preparing for what is next.
It will only get worse.
There is no other way other than retaking the strip and reestablishing Israeli control there.
Leaving the strip unilaterally was the ultimate mistake that has fostered all the bloodshed.
Let no one be fooled by the Israeli government. This conflict is not the end.
It is not even the beginning of the end, at best it is the end of the beginning.

Big mistake

It is astounding that the man who made it his mission to defeat terrorism has basically capitulated to the Hamas terrorist organization by agreeing to ta cease fire.
He will say that there is no real other viable option and few would want to risk the lives of so many soldiers but very many here in Israel feel frustrated at the results.
In essence if this cease fire holds up,none have up till now.
The Hamas will be able to start to terrorize once again Israel when it chooses.
This should be a unacceptable situation but it is not.
The Gaza strip as it is called is a biblical part of Israel, Jews have lived there for centuries there is even a famous Rabbi buried in the Jewish cemetery there.
Leaving the area 9 years ago was wrong and has caused so much heartache to so many.
Israel must and eventually will have to retake the strip and settle there Jews once again.
It will happen after mush more bloodshed on both sides.
There are those that still believe it is possible with good will to reach an understanding with the Hamas or the Palestinians.
Many understand that this is impossible.
There are those who wish to relinquish more territory but they are in the minority.
The right wing politicians have gathered strength and will dominate the next elections.
When ever that may happen.
The next war is just a matter of time.

The new war of attrition

This is what Israel wanted to avoid almost at all cost. A war of attrition in the Gaza strip.
No one seems to know the real strategy of the Prime Minister Benjiman Netanyahu.
He claims that his objective is to create a long term cease fire of sorts with the Hamas in the Gaza strip.
It is very unclear how this might be done without destroying the Hamas ability to shoot rockets.
That would mean having the IDF reconquer the Gaza strip, something Netanyahu is loath to do.
That being the case the situation has become a war of attrition, with both sides bombing each other.
The school year is about to start with hundreds of thousands of students within firing range.
This is unprecedented ...

The cease fire and what lies ahead

Israel is in a difficult position.
It is being attacked by the Hamas and when trying to defend itself is being attacked by many in the world.
A difficult situation indeed! Many civilians in the Gaza strip have been killed in this war as a result of the usage of human shields in Gaza.
Soldiers that are fired upon from anywhere will fire back even if that fire come from a kindergarten or hospital.
No one can expect a soldier to risk his life to comply with unclear ruling of combat in such difficult situations.
Indeed a commission has been set up to check about the alleged atrocities committed by the Israeli army.
There is a zero chance of this commission being objective in its findings and Israel is likely not going to participate in the proceeding.
In a paradoxical way those who think they are saving future victims by threatening the IDF and thereby discouraging it from firing in questionable situations have it all wrong.
They are in fact endangering future non combatants as the Hamas and other terrorist organizations will continue to use human shields as tactics of war.
A loss of life is tragic whether civilian or military.
Children of war seem to be the greatest of victims.
The true criminals would be those seeking to destroy Israel using any means at their disposal.
Those children who are taught hate and death are truly being abused.
That is the ultimate war crime.

War and Peace in the middle east

Israel has been at war off and on for the last 100 years. The riots of 1921 may have been the start of this war that continues to this very day. There have been mini-wars in this period that have brought some respite for a few years. The independence war and the six-day war gave 8 and 7 years of relative calm. But even during those periods there were constant terrorist threats and attacks. The current war is not fundamentally different than the others. It is different as it seems some of the players have more important things on their agenda then destroying Israel. Egypt for one.It is not different as its purpose is to annihilate the Jewish state. There are those in Israel and elsewhere that attempt and still believe in some sort of compromise that will end the wars and bloodshed. The fact remains that with the exception of Egypt and Jordan we are still at war with the Arab world. The fact that Egypt despises some of Israels enemies more than Israel does is nothing short of miraculous. There is no clear solution to this conflict and it will continue to fester for a long time.
Crazy middle east.

When dead is dead: the peace process

It was so predictable, it was so clear. The wasted efforts of the United States to bring a peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians. I use the term Palestinians very loosely to describe those Arabs living in Judea and Samaria that are negotiating with Israel.
The negotiations have hit a brick wall and some fail to recognize or admit to this reality.
They are afraid of repercussions in wake of the failure of these negotiations.
Reality needs to be looked squarely in face and dealt with.
Israel needs now to take concrete steps to counter unilateral steps taken by the other side.
Some that come to mind immediately.
1. Immediate cessation of any funds delivered to the Palestinian Authority
2. Denial of passage of political leaders of the authority in any part of Israel
3. First steps to annex parts of Judea and Samaria where most of the settlers live
4. Massive building push in all areas of Judea and Samaria
5. Retaking of Northen towns that were destroyed during former prime minister Sharons perfidious actions
6. public statement of the Israeli prime minister to the world of the reasons for all these actions
These steps will start to right the ship in terms of the national security of Israel and start to stop the notion of a Palestinian state.
Enough is enough.

Peace negotiations

The merry go round continues to around.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is about to land in the United States.
He presumably will be presented with a agreement of sorts from John Kerry about a framework agreement.
He will be pressured by Barack Obama to accept a agreement.
It is very hard to understand what type of framework agreement can be presented.
The chief Palastnian negotiater Saab Baarekat has just recently said for the hundreth time that there will be no recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people. He reiterated this saying it was " unthinkable ".
Meanwhile there seems to be complete confusion in Washington as to what to now.
There is a clear understanding that the talks will fail as all others have failed before.
As an incredible stroke of bad luck on Obamas and Kerry's part a looming crisis in Ukraine may put the Israeli Palestinian issue on the back burner.
The truth of the matter is that the two state solution is dead and that it was never a real option.
That cold reality is staring to sink in to everybody.
The question is what happens next?
Three possible scenarios
1. The Palestinian athourity resigns and tells israel to " take over " Judea and Samaria.
2. Both Israel and the Palestinains take unilteral steps. The Palestinain steps would be a one sided declartion of independence in all of pre 1967 borders. The Israeli steps would include anexing parts of Judea and Samaria.
3. A third Intifada or uprising of the Palestinians
There may be some variations of some of these scenarios together.
There is Zero chance of any agreement and a slight chance of agreeing to continue to talk for another period of time.
It will be a big mess

Ho Hum -another peace process

You need to al least appreciate the tenacity and stuborness of the United States.
Nonetheless ...
Never have so few invested so much into so low a chance to achieve. The process here is the main objective, there is no final solution ( no horrible pun intended )
These is not and cannot be a peace treaty at the end of all this
It is a non-starter as there is no place to put 700,000 Jewish settlers and no force that can remove them from there homes
There is no Israeli government that is agreeable to ceding Jerusalem to a foreign power
there is no Arab ( or Palestinian partner ) that will recognize Israel as a Jewish state or agree on less than the 1967 border lines.
So what is going on?
A peace process
Its the process that is important here
Keep talking and not fighting
Sounds great, no?
It will be good until the talks fail
Then all hell will break loose
That is the meaning of a peace process in the middle east
Talk a bit, the war
Then do it all over again
Its getting a bit boring

Peace talks that are going nowwhere

What’s the point? Talks are to start on Tuesday, Hurray!
What are the Vegas odds that these talks after so many others will go anywhere.
I would give it 1000 to 1.
That these talks will lead to a final status agreement and the end of the conflict?
1,000,000 to 1
This is all about a United States promise of attacking Iran in the next year if Bibi plays ball now.
That will explain why he will agree to let out convicted terrorists
A current poll says that more than 80% of Israelis are against letting go of convicted terrorists
Its clear that there must be a unwritten promise of a immenent attack by the US on Iran
It will happen in the next six months
As far as the talks are concerned
Noone really thinks they will go anywhere.
Noone
There cannot be a two state solution anymore.
To many Jews live in Judea and Samaria.
Sometimes stupid ideas die hard