The drum roll of war in the Korean Pennisula

War in Korea, again?


Someone once said that if you want peace prepare for war and if you want war talk a lot about peace. President Barack Obama has tried to appease and start dialogue with the perceived enemies of the United States. He doesn’t seem to doing that well. The Korean peninsula is a heart beat away from major configuration all this under the new watch of Obama. Its hard to say how George Bush would have handled this crisis but John Macain has said that the President is not handling the situation correctly. That might be an understatement. Many guessed that Obama would be tested very early in his presidency and they were right. The dictatorship in North Korea understands Obamas inexperience and hesitancy to act forceful. They are taking advantage of all this and are severely testing the resolve of the US and the west. A cargo ship that reportedly is delivering illegal arms has left North Korea and the United States is afraid to board the ship. Simply scared. The North has threatened to start a war and many believe that those threats are not empty. In essence the war between the North and South never stopped. But effectively there has been a tense truce. There is a real danger now because of Obamas bumbling of real war happening again. The nuclear threat now has made things all that more complicated. What needs to be done now Obama apparently does not know. Time will tell if this war is inevitable. South Korea has two major war drills a year. War may be around the corner. Iran hopes so at least.

Israel, Under pressure again

The State of Israel- under pressure


Barack Obama is trying to link territorial compromise to action against Iran. That’s what Obama is more than hinting to Benjamin Netanyahu and the State of Israel. This bizarre linkage says in simple terms that the United States will not act by force if necessary if Israel does not do what the United States wants. This linkage has clear logical flaws as no one can really see any real progress on a peace solution between Israel and those that seek Palestinian statehood. It’s not something that can happen in the next few years or decades. The problem will not dissolve if Israel decides to pull down some settlements that might make the problem worse. ( remember the Gaza Pullback ).

On the other hand Iranian nuclear capabilities are increasing slowly but surely and it will shortly become a nuclear threat that Israel cannot live with. It is a immediate threat whereas the conflict of Israel and the so called Palestinians is old and as said a solution is far away. The linking of the two is foolish and dangerous.

It is quite clear that Israel is preparing its worst case scenario possibility, striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is the last thing it wants to do but will be forced to act alone if Washington does not force Iran to give up on its nuclear capabilities.

Obama looks like the wrong man at the wrong time.

Embattled Israeli Prime Minister to cave in

to American demands, but that won't help either


Someone once said that the most difficult job in the world is to be the Prime minister of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu is feeling this difficulty right now as almost unprecedented pressure is being put on Israel to do things against its best interests. Barack Obama is determined to solve this most difficult of conflicts no matter what the obstacles are. He is pressuring Israel to do what it simply cannot do. It cannot choke its own population by denying housing to ever expanding populations in Judea and Samaria and accepting a Palestinian state on its border.

Let’s examine what would happen if Israel acquiesced to these demands. The first demand would be impossible to implement as housing permits have been granted and money paid for hew housing. The housing shortage is acute in Judea and Samaria and completely stopping construction is a pointless impossibility. That’s not even mentioning that the livelihood of thousands of local Arabs depends on this so called “ illegal construction “. This demand reaches absurd levels as massive construction continues in a Jerusalem suburb called “ Har Choma “ . This neighborhood is legally a part of Jerusalem on the “ good side “of the green line. It is not under military rule and is as much a part of Israel as Tel-Aviv. Nonetheless the building there is considered settlement expansion. The two sides do not even agree what constitutes settlement expansion. Even if Israel agreed to completely halt settlement expansion work would continue at “ Har Choma “ That would be seen by the other side as a violation of the agreement.

As far as a Palestinian State is concerned the wording is probably less important than the essence. Netanyahu will only agree to high authority autonomy in Judea and Samaria. He cannot and will not agree to anything more. That would mean no real army or free air space for this autonomous entity. The Arab side will never agree to these conditions or that Israeli settlements remain inside its autonomous areas. Dismantling of these settlements is logistically impossible and will not happen.

Those two issues I mentioned are considered the easier issues on the table and clearly are unsolvable. The more difficult issues of Jerusalem and refugees are just completely stymied that all involved refuse to talk about them.

Obama should use his time doing other things.

He will not solve the problem. He may be adding to it

Hail to the chump

Obama doesn’t seem to get it


President Barak Obamas keynote speech in Cairo last week has been dissected from all sides by very many people. Some things most agree on. That his rhetorical abilities are considerable and that he is a bit naive.

There seemed to be a clear slight by the Egyptian President who did not bother meeting Obama at the airport and did not sit in on his speech. Hosni Mubarek clearly feels that he is dealing with a amateur as leader of the free world and the snubs seem to reflect that. He is being severely tested by the North Koreans as his economic recovery plan seems to be teetering. He firmly believes that peace is possible everywhere even in the troubled middle east. He really believes that if Israel stops settlement activity or even removes settlements a Israeli state and a Palestinian State can live side by side. He really believes the new government of Benjamin Netanyahu will implement policy that is in direct contradiction to its party platform.

This is all a lot of hogwash of course as the chances for true peace are many years away. The Palestinian state that Obama wants so much is the worst thing that can happen to Jews and Arabs alike. It will bring misery and poverty to the Arabs and a security disaster to Israel.

The Israeli Prime Minister is to be giving a major Foreign policy speech next week to make clear Israel’s foreign Policy.

Hey at least the speech writers are making a living.

Obama says no and Bebe says yes, What now?

President Barak Obama has reiterated his opposition to any settlement expansion even natural growth. Prime Minister Netanyahu has also reiterated that natural growth will be permitted.

Now what?

The United States can now threaten Israel with economic sanctions and even an arms embargo. The Washington post was reported as saying that Israel would not receive loan guarantees it needs to procure foreign investment. Nothing yet has been said about the 10 billion Dollars that Israel receives every year. It is clear that Obama means business when he is trying to make the Israeli Prime minister Do things that will surely bring down his government. Not to mention that the overwhelming majority of Israelis are against a two state solution and return to pre 67 borders. Their may be a silver lining in Obamas threats and that would be the cutting of the financial umbilical cord between the US and Israel. Netanyahu in his first tenure mentioned as much that Israel would like to stop receiving aid from the US. The time has come for the Jewish state to stand on its own two feet. A little financial isolationist from the US would go a long way in helping the crippled American economy.

All that being said it is unlikely that all aid will abruptly be stopped. Many American firms depend on Israel using its aid money to but products in the US. The ultimate weapons embargo is something that Obama will probably not use. If the relationship between Israel and the US gets that bad then it will truly be an entire different ballgame.

Other Presidents have tried to bully Israeli Prime ministers into doing and saying different things. Some with some marginal success. It is hard to see President Obama forcing the Israeli Prime minister into concessions that will lead to any progress in peace negotiations. From Israel’s perspective any so called progress will endanger Israel existence. That Netanyahu will not agree to.

Obama is wasting his time and energy.

Looming crisis in the Korean Peninsula

North Korea defies the world, Iran keeping a close watch.


North Korea continues to defy the world by detonating a rather large Nuclear device and continuing to test ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear payloads. Other than some harsh rhetoric by Western leaders it is mostly unclear what is to happen now. Many expected a severe foreign policy test for President Obama in his first year. It looks like the test has arrived.

Obama has a few options to choose from. One option could be to completely isolate the North with a complete embargo and possible confiscation of its assets outside of Korea. That option would probably cause massive starvation for millions in the North and not undermine the regime to much.
Another option is a full military blockade of the North by Nato forces. This option is also problematic as this blockade is a clear act of war that would give the north a excuse to start another Korean War. A last option of course is to do nothing at all with all of its repercussions.

Iran is looking very carefully as to how the West will react to this latest outrage by North Korea. It is hoping that there will be major saber rattling and very little in terms of substance. They see the confrontation between the west and North Korea as a test case for themselves. .

President Obama is unlikely to do anything that might antagonize the north and cause a rekindling of the Korean War. The nuclear capability of the North certainly limits what steps can be taken by the west. Iran is betting that little will be done to confront North Korea in this new cold war crisis. It expects the same will happen if they manage to attain nuclear capability. The policy of the United States is to stop Irans quest for a bomb at all cost. The way this crisis is managed will go long way in showing Iran what the west has in store for it.

Did I mention Israel in all this?

The endless loop of the Middle East peace process

Its over, Netanyahu leaves Washington.


A lot has been said and written on what would happen when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met President Barack Obama. Many predicted a serious diplomatic row others weren’t completely sure what to expect. But it turns out that the more things change the more they stay the same. The Arab Israeli conflict has perplexed so many for so long, easy solutions do not seem to be in the offing. President Obama may think that he will be able to easily solve this most impossible of problems. He is to introduce a new peace initiative on his upcoming trip to Cairo. This initiative will focus on Israel being fully recognized by moderate Arab countries even before Israel decides to go back to pre 1967 border lines. They will not do it. The President is wasting his time.

The so called Peace process is a non starter and doomed to failure. The funny part about this is that everyone really knows this and continues to play the game. It is completely inconceivable that any Prime Minister would ever agree to the minimalist demands on the Arab side. The peace process is a never ending loop of talks and wars.

The Arab side still has not recognized Israel’s right to exist. Israel is not going away and the hatred of Israel just seems to increase.

Its just the same old story.