The deal of the Century

President Trump has been discussing this for a while.
The deal which will finally bring peace and prosperity to the middle east.
He has the best intentions but will learn the hard way that this "deal" is not doable.
It will be outright rejected by the Palestinians for not meeting what they call the minimum needs for a peace agreement.
These were are and will be the armistice lines of before the outbreak of the six-day war in 1967.
That would mean Jerusalem would be divided again.
This demand is a non-starter for almost every Jewish Israeli and seemingly cannot happen.
How the deal of the century circumvents this problem is anyones guess.
The Palestinians have made it abundantly clear that they will never compromise on this issue.
The likely scenario of the introduction of this peace plan will be much different than President Trump hopes.
Let me explain.
The Israeli Prime Minister will likely be indicted on bribery charges after upcoming elections.
This long process which is dependent on a pre indictment hearing will force Bibi to make a coalition with the hard right wingers in his new governmnet.
This will likely result in demands from colalition partners for annexation of a large part of Judea and Samaria called the C-section.
Bibi would prefer to not do this but will not be able to bring in to his goverment parties who have vowed never to join his goverment because of his legal status.
These center left parties would have agreed to some compromise and would be against anexation of any areas.
This anexation process and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip will lead to a new war between Israel and Arabs living in Gaza and even in Judea and Samaria.
Ironically those who wish to rid Israel of Bibi and his right wing policies will recieve and even more extreme Bibi because of coalition needs.
War is just a matter of time.

Just a matter of time

It is just a matter of time until the next war breaks out between Israel and Hamas or Hizbullah or both.
The economy in the Gaza strip is a shambles and it has become mostly pointless trying to make sure money is sent in to avoid a complete collapse.
There will be a war in any case and the fifteen million dollars that Israel is refusing to let in will not change anything.
The Hamas will not and cannot stop its actions that hurt Israels security interests.
The only question lies whether Hizbullah will join a war this time.
It did not do so last time but it might this time around.
Both these terror organizations want to annihilate Israel but are frankly scared to be destroyed.
The winter is not a prime time for wars to break out.
Spring is.
Expect a two front war in the spring that will likely lead to the destruction of the Hamas.
Hard to say what will happen to the Hizbullah as its complete destruction is unlikely.
We are just a few months away.
Get ready!!!

War is next.

The war of attrition on the Gaza strip border is becoming unmanagable.
No on in Israel really wants to send the Israeli army back into the strip any time soon.
There will be casualties and the outcome of taking control over the strip with its two million people is not tempting to say the least.
The army is waiting for the rains to come that might limit damage that incendiary balloons cause.
Bizarre tactics for a powerhouse army like the IDF.
There are limitations of strength.
The thought of horror of and people crisis in the strip hae made the IDF just try to wait it out for the winter.
It won't work and the IDF knows it.
War will break out soonr or later and its up to the commanders to figure out how to enter the strip with minimum or no casualties at all.
A tall task indeed.
There will likely be a direct assault from the sea and border to try to quickly kill the main Hamas and Jihad terrorists and declare martial law.
This plan is being rehearsed over and over.
Egypt will be asked possibly to act as a mediator once the IDF is in charge one more.
There will be a hunt for all the senior Hamas operatives.
All these options are very bad ones.
That is why the IDF is not entering the strip now.
It will happen sooner or later.
Just a matter of time.

Israel and the Gaza Strip

Another violent and bloody confrontation between Hamas and Israel.
Hundreds of rockets shot into Israel while Irael retaliates.
When might this end?
There is no real solution to all this.
The constant war of attrition is unaceptable and unsustainable.
Reentering the strip and staying there after leaving it many years ago will be very dificult as Israel will take responsibility for all the mess in the strip.
And do it goes another br? rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrround of violence that goes nowhere.
Eventually the IDF will need to retake the strip and when that happens it will be ugly very ugly.
It was close this time.
Very close

US Iran crisis

Iran has threatened to close the straits of Hormuz if there is an embargo of exports of Iranian oil.
That would be an act of war.
The spectacle of a military confrontation between Iran and the US is becoming increasingly likely in the wake of new sanctions.
There is clearly no match between the the two navies but that may mean very little.
Iran may use a confrontation with the US as a rallying cry to unite its people in the wake of severe economic hardship.
It might be the only thing that will save the regime in Teheran.
A war between the US and Teheran?
Might happen.

The Palestinian Authority, whats next?

Israel has just enacted a law to deduct from all payments to the Palestinian Authority money being payed out to the family of terrorists.
The PA has said another

Red

line has been crossed.
So many Red lines lines have been crossed over the years that few pay attention any more.
The real question is how long will Abu Mazen live and what is the next step for the PA.
As the US peace plan is about to be launched and promptly rejected by the PA it is hard to see how things are to improve.
They will not of course.
The PA in Ramalla and the Hamas in Gaza are out of money.
when they reject the American peace initiative they will likely cease to receive money from many Arab countries. It is just a matter of time until the PA collapses and turns into complete chaos.
Hard to say how this will play out.

Chaos in Iran

What is to happen in Iran is very difficult to ascertain.
It is likely that the economy will collapse in the next few months as sanctions start to bite.
The question that remains is whether it will be enough to topple the government.
It does not seem likely that any economic collapse will lead to a new revolution.
All hope that the government will fall as the late Shaw fell.
Hard to see a coup that will oust the present leadership.
If that's the case Iran may continue to limp through will the nuclear deal with all other partners.
It is hard to see them upgrading their nuclear program and risking a military strike from the US.
They must believe that Trump will not hesitate to strike if there is a perceived threat to the US or Israel.
They are not sure what to do.
They will finally need to renegotiate the nuclear pact if they feel their rule is in danger.
It is hard seeing them crawling back to the table under almost any circumstances.
Hard to say what might happen now.
Lets wait and see.