I told you so

Everybody hates it when you say to them I told you so.

But... I told you so. This can never work.

I wonder what odds Jimmy the Greek would give for the current peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians to succeed. 100 to 1, 1000 to 1. The house would win on this one. There is no chance that anything good will come out of these talks, only frustration and violence. The Arabs is being asked for very little right now just some symbolic statements that they find difficult to implement. When I say difficult I mean impossible. Israel’s Prime Minister wants a simple statement from a weak leader of part of the national Palestinian movement that recognizes Israel as the national homeland of the Jewish people.
He cannot bring himself to make this statement.
This is before discussions on the other seemingly insurmountable issues that the Arab side does not seem to budge on even one millimeter.
Benjamin Netanyahu who was elected by a constituency that is against overtures to the Arab side is being pushed to extend a building freeze that none of his voters want. Even if he does extend somewhat this freeze it won’t make any real difference in the success of the negotiations.

They will fail.

Not complicated.

Get ready for war.

Here we go again.

Theater of the absurd
Here we go again.
Peace talks are underway again between Israel and Arabs of Israel ( they call themselves Palestinians )
This has been talked about for the last 25 years and will probably be talked about in another 25 years. Is it cynical to say that there is no chance for this to happen? It might be but does that change the reality? It does not. They are talking peace or so they say. Benjiman Netanyahu is demanding a recognition of Israel as the nation State of the Jewish people. They have steadfastly refused to do this or even compromise on one inch of territory that they claim. Why will he change now? The answer is that he won’t change. The most extreme concessions thinkable by any Israeli is far less than the minimal concessions the Arab side is ready to accept.
Some simple examples.
The Demand a complete withdrawal of Israel form all territories captured in 1967 including east Jerusalem. Israel is ready to withdraw from some areas in the west bank and will not even talk about east Jerusalem. There are another 4 similar insurmountable issues that just do not have a solution. No matter how you slice it.
As these talks crumble as they most certainly will things will get worse before they get better.

It won’t be pretty.

Rabbis comments

Who cares what the Rabbi says? Everybody

Rabbi Ovadia Yosef comments the other day wishing death to Israel’s enemies have caused a furor and a minor international incident. His comments have been blown out of proportion certainly but interestingly enough have made news headlines the world over.
Rabbis are completely ignored by most on theological issues that seem to have relevance only to their parishioners. When an influential one seems to leave theology and enter the political fray everyone perks up and listens. It’s important to understand where this has come from. Rabbi Yosef the spiritual leader of a very influential political party in Israel . He wields considerable political clout and is often quoted for things he says. He previously openly supported territorial compromise in the event of a real peace treaty . He based this support on his interpretation of Jewish Law and was attacked for this stance by many in the Rabbinic world. It would be accurate to say that he went out on a limb to be as pragmatic and compromising as possible and is hoping mad at what cession of land has caused. His sermon was based on the upcoming Rosh Hashanah or Jewish New year where traditional blessing include the cursing Of Israel’s enemies.
Most Israeli’s see the Palestinian authority as Israel’s enemies. That’s a big shock.

My Kaddish Experience

Saying Kaddish for a parent is never an easy thing for anyone. When you need to travel overseas the difficulty just becomes that much greater. That difficulty becomes greater when you travel. It was easy enough on my flight to the United States from Israel. I left after midnight and arrived early in the morning in time for morning prayers in New Jersey. While there the internet helped me find a minyan in most places and I managed to say Kaddish if not actually getting to lead services which are my preference during the morning period. I booked a flight back to Israel that allowed the best chance to say kaddish for all prayers. The flight took off at 2:15 and the earliest mincha was at 1:31 officially, we started a few minutes early as many were stressed about getting on the plane on time. This mincha happened and I boarded the flight. One down and two to go. When it started getting dark I asked some religious looking passengers to go to the back of the plane for evening prayers which worked out quite well. My last challenge was Shacris or morning prayers which I was unsure where and how I would do. As it turned out I managed to find a minyan at the airport Shul that I arrived a bit late but said kaddish .
It’s good to be back in the Land of Israel where all things Jewish just have more meaning.

Things may be getting better

Incredibly enough despite the bleak outlook of many some companies have been doing incredible business. The chip giant Intel has reported its best quarter in history. That’s right in the midst of a global crisis a chip maker which should be experiencing a slowdown is making lots of money. What makes this extraordinary is that much of the sales have come from overseas that seem to be in the throngs of even a worse crisis. Microprocessors that intel produces and sells fuels new businesses worldwide and is a great indicator that things aren’t as bad as they seem. The lurking military showdown with Iran and continued military tensions with North Korea is not keeping companies away from buying hardware for its businesses. Things should be getting worse and they seem to be getting slightly better. What is going on?
Things are getting better because people sense that Obama is going to be a one term president and that the Republicans will win the next elections. This will send the markets up and give companies more money. When this happens jobs will be created and money made will be spent on goods and services. This will further fuel growth. If something bizarre happens and the Democrats fare well expect financial catastrophe. The markets will likely plunge and long expected inflation will ensue. Unemployment will rise and growth will slow. This will happen despite that latest signs of recovery.
Even more people will default on their credit card bills and debt settlement companies will abound.
If we are all lucky that won’t happen.

What is going to happen?

As the markets go up and go down and go up again nobody really knows where this is all headed.The Democrats are likely to lose the elections coming up and many think that will push the market forward. There may be a surge in the short term but long term things are looking bleak indeed. Inflation and devaluation of the greenback is what is being predicted. Obama seems to be spending and printing to much money. Some types of companies may stand to gain from all this like debt Negotiation Services company that seem to have sprung up in the thousands. They will extricate everyone from all the debt they will pile up as a result of the real crisis that seems to be looming and is just around the corner.Wise will be those that will try to take there money out of the market as cash will really be king soon.

Financial woes

Debt reduction

 

Everyone is trying to do it. Most European countries are desperately trying to reduce their debt by taking extreme measures. Greece for example has pushed up its VAT to 23 % trying to tax people who otherwise cheat on their taxes. Taxes on cigarettes have also gone sky high in so many places that it is common practice to smuggle cigarettes. Some countries have taxed cigarettes close to 300%. Israel a country where the economy has fared well in comparison to others has just recently raised its taxes on cigarettes. This may discourage the sale and usage somewhat but probably not very much. Some smokers will deny themselves food but continue to smoke so the regular microeconomic rules go mostly by the wayside. Many countries justify these measures on cigarettes at least on the massive money spent to deal with cigarette related illnesses. Medical costs for cigarette related problems are extreme and the taxes are supposed to mitigate those costs.  That is the debt of countries and governments. But it all really starts with the individual his fiscal planning and attempts to keep his head above water. The world crisis did start with unscrupulous financial institutions but there were irresponsible people who went way over their heads when trying to secure loans for homes. They should not have taken such huge mortgages and put themselves in a vulnerable position of credit despair. They did of course and the repercussions of their irresponsible actions are reverberating around the world.

The world is in debt crisis and doesn't seem to be pulling out of that crisis anytime soon. The emerging powerhouse of the world China is having some trouble in pulling itself out this mess. The Chinese stock market is at a 4 year low as deep concerns over the world economy continue. Europe is the grips of a crisis unprecedented since the end of the Second World War. In the backdrop of this is the looming showdown with a possible nuclear Iran and the repercussions that might have on the world economy.

In essence the Economies of the world work around the concept of going into debt and having borrowed money circulate freely. This allows for businesses to have access to funds they need for expansion. All this spurs growth. But sound economic principles have evolved into irresponsible fiscal planning. The little guy can shield himself from all this with proper spending practices.

Its people and not governments that have the solution.