Trump on his way back

 Incredible, almost unprecedented but true, The former president Trump will likely be the next President Trump. Biden is doing a very poor Job and clearly is not fit to be president. He is down in all the polls for his handling of everythng and has opened the door for Trump to make his comeback. What will a Trump presidency look like with a four year absence no one knows but this bizarre scenario seems the most likely to happen. Keep your belts on!

Biden very confused

 He has not had a press conference and it is not difficult to understand why. Joe Biden is in clear cognative decline. Not clear how long he can continue to function even at a minimum level. The bizarre election where Trump was winning and lost in the end is over of course. Biden has won but does not seem at times to know where he is or what he is doing. Kamela the vice president is making calls to world leaders and is apparently running the show. What needs to happen before Biden resigns or is simply unable to perform his basic functions?

Trump meanwhile is getting ready for another run in 2024. Hard to understand a sitting president losing and running again. The usual scenario for such a thing is a complete failure of his presidency. For Trump nothing could be further from the truth. He was a great president and will be remembered as such. His comeback may be the wildest presidential run in US history. Can anyone imagine the spectacle of him winning in 2024??

Lets see if he will run against Kamela. Biden will be long incapcitated.

Now the US just has to survive for four years.

World turned upside down

Difficult to fathom the misery and pain suffered by so many over the greatest heath crisis of our time.

It has affected billions and brought the world to a virtual standstill. The money pumped into the economy all over the world to keep people alive seems to be coming from nowhere.  While all this is happenng the worlds stock markets just keep on going up.  This is a very dangerous situation that will likely lead sooner or later to a market crash and a world recession similair to what happened in 1929. That crash led to WW2 and the murder and death of over 20 million people.  When this crash happens rouge regimes will fail and use their weapons to attack. This is why reigning in Iran now is especially important. Bidens looming presidency will likely fold with regard to nuclear extortion from Iran and this is very bad news. Hard to say when the Corona stock market bubble will burst but when it does it may bring more misery than even the Corona.
There are signs that the Pandemic might ease up as a vaccine is being handed out. This will not stop the great crash that is coming.

Might be happening as you read this.

New World

The pandemic has created a new world order for all.
Even if things seem to be slightly easing nothing will ever be the same.
The truth be said is that we were unprepared and ill equipped to deal with a plague as this one.
As the modern world fueled this pandemic so it must find safeguards to insure nothing lie this happens again.
The next one when it comes will likely be worse and kill millions. ,What needs to be done?
Stop all killing and eating of wild game.
Only state sanctioned lists of animals that are deemed safe should be consumed. Strict punishments should be meted out to those who break law.
Travel should only be allowed to healthy people who can prove their health status.
Planes should be designed to mitigate potential person to person infections.  
Cross border travel should be monitored somehow.

Massive emergency stockpiles of needed equipment should be constantly stockpiled.
We need to be ready!



Lets do it!   

Trump and the war with Iran

No one seems to know if and when The United States will attack Iran.
The Iranaians started to openly defy inspectors with regard to a specific site that they refuse to open to inspectors.
Trump does not want to go to war before the next American election and Iran should feel nervous if Trump wins again which seems likely.
What will it look like?
If Iran does not come back to the negotiating table and does start upgrading its nuclear capability then all hell may break loose.
That would mean a barrage of Tomahawk missles on key sites around Iran.
Iran would likely try to respond by hitting Israel with missle strikes and Israel would retaliate.
Saudia Arabia would be very happy with a scenario like that.
But will it happen?
Seems likely that at some point either Iran will come back to negotiate or their will be another revolution that will topple the government.
irans economy is in shambles and it is hard to see them continuing to survive under such conditions.
Iran as others are hoping Trump loses re election.
Hard to say what will happen.
One thing is for sure.
the US and Israel wil not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.
It wont be pretty.

War with Iran

It has to happen sooner or later.
The United States is planning to destroy the nuclear capabilities of the Islamic Republic.
There is clearly a plan that has all the targets set up to destroy in a few minutes.
All President Trump has to do is say yes and the party starts.
It is hard to see any other way out of this crisis if Iran continues to enrich Uranium as it has promised to do.
Will Iran gamble that the US will not attack?
What will happen after that?
Will Israel be attaceked?
Will the Hizbullah Irans proxie attack Israel after that?
So much uncertainty regarding what might happen.
How does the US attack without causing major damage and even more massive death toll?
Hard to say what is to happen now.
President Trump does not want a war during his campiagn to get reelected.
Who knows? Hold on to your hats ladies and gentleman.

War

It will happen sooner or later.
The Hamas and Jihad in the Gaa strip are egging on Israel and war is imminent.
It almost happened a few days ago, it might happen tommrrow.
Hard to say exactly when but it will happen.
It may not involve a complete land invasion though it is hard to see avoiding ground troops alltogether.
There will be special forces sent to kill the leadership of the Hamas and Jihad.
What exactly happens next is hard to say.
Israel has been planning this move for a while and wants to avoid causulties as much as possible.
It is also unclear what is to be done with the civilian population of the strip and the basic needs they lack.
It is likely to happen in next few wees or months.
If any missle that is fired into Israel ills any civilians then all bets are truly off.
Everybody is waiting for something.
That something is War.
Whether the Nothen border heats up as well is another question.
We will all now soon enough.

The deal of the Century

President Trump has been discussing this for a while.
The deal which will finally bring peace and prosperity to the middle east.
He has the best intentions but will learn the hard way that this "deal" is not doable.
It will be outright rejected by the Palestinians for not meeting what they call the minimum needs for a peace agreement.
These were are and will be the armistice lines of before the outbreak of the six-day war in 1967.
That would mean Jerusalem would be divided again.
This demand is a non-starter for almost every Jewish Israeli and seemingly cannot happen.
How the deal of the century circumvents this problem is anyones guess.
The Palestinians have made it abundantly clear that they will never compromise on this issue.
The likely scenario of the introduction of this peace plan will be much different than President Trump hopes.
Let me explain.
The Israeli Prime Minister will likely be indicted on bribery charges after upcoming elections.
This long process which is dependent on a pre indictment hearing will force Bibi to make a coalition with the hard right wingers in his new governmnet.
This will likely result in demands from colalition partners for annexation of a large part of Judea and Samaria called the C-section.
Bibi would prefer to not do this but will not be able to bring in to his goverment parties who have vowed never to join his goverment because of his legal status.
These center left parties would have agreed to some compromise and would be against anexation of any areas.
This anexation process and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip will lead to a new war between Israel and Arabs living in Gaza and even in Judea and Samaria.
Ironically those who wish to rid Israel of Bibi and his right wing policies will recieve and even more extreme Bibi because of coalition needs.
War is just a matter of time.

Just a matter of time

It is just a matter of time until the next war breaks out between Israel and Hamas or Hizbullah or both.
The economy in the Gaza strip is a shambles and it has become mostly pointless trying to make sure money is sent in to avoid a complete collapse.
There will be a war in any case and the fifteen million dollars that Israel is refusing to let in will not change anything.
The Hamas will not and cannot stop its actions that hurt Israels security interests.
The only question lies whether Hizbullah will join a war this time.
It did not do so last time but it might this time around.
Both these terror organizations want to annihilate Israel but are frankly scared to be destroyed.
The winter is not a prime time for wars to break out.
Spring is.
Expect a two front war in the spring that will likely lead to the destruction of the Hamas.
Hard to say what will happen to the Hizbullah as its complete destruction is unlikely.
We are just a few months away.
Get ready!!!

War is next.

The war of attrition on the Gaza strip border is becoming unmanagable.
No on in Israel really wants to send the Israeli army back into the strip any time soon.
There will be casualties and the outcome of taking control over the strip with its two million people is not tempting to say the least.
The army is waiting for the rains to come that might limit damage that incendiary balloons cause.
Bizarre tactics for a powerhouse army like the IDF.
There are limitations of strength.
The thought of horror of and people crisis in the strip hae made the IDF just try to wait it out for the winter.
It won't work and the IDF knows it.
War will break out soonr or later and its up to the commanders to figure out how to enter the strip with minimum or no casualties at all.
A tall task indeed.
There will likely be a direct assault from the sea and border to try to quickly kill the main Hamas and Jihad terrorists and declare martial law.
This plan is being rehearsed over and over.
Egypt will be asked possibly to act as a mediator once the IDF is in charge one more.
There will be a hunt for all the senior Hamas operatives.
All these options are very bad ones.
That is why the IDF is not entering the strip now.
It will happen sooner or later.
Just a matter of time.

Israel and the Gaza Strip

Another violent and bloody confrontation between Hamas and Israel.
Hundreds of rockets shot into Israel while Irael retaliates.
When might this end?
There is no real solution to all this.
The constant war of attrition is unaceptable and unsustainable.
Reentering the strip and staying there after leaving it many years ago will be very dificult as Israel will take responsibility for all the mess in the strip.
And do it goes another br? rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrround of violence that goes nowhere.
Eventually the IDF will need to retake the strip and when that happens it will be ugly very ugly.
It was close this time.
Very close

US Iran crisis

Iran has threatened to close the straits of Hormuz if there is an embargo of exports of Iranian oil.
That would be an act of war.
The spectacle of a military confrontation between Iran and the US is becoming increasingly likely in the wake of new sanctions.
There is clearly no match between the the two navies but that may mean very little.
Iran may use a confrontation with the US as a rallying cry to unite its people in the wake of severe economic hardship.
It might be the only thing that will save the regime in Teheran.
A war between the US and Teheran?
Might happen.

The Palestinian Authority, whats next?

Israel has just enacted a law to deduct from all payments to the Palestinian Authority money being payed out to the family of terrorists.
The PA has said another

Red

line has been crossed.
So many Red lines lines have been crossed over the years that few pay attention any more.
The real question is how long will Abu Mazen live and what is the next step for the PA.
As the US peace plan is about to be launched and promptly rejected by the PA it is hard to see how things are to improve.
They will not of course.
The PA in Ramalla and the Hamas in Gaza are out of money.
when they reject the American peace initiative they will likely cease to receive money from many Arab countries. It is just a matter of time until the PA collapses and turns into complete chaos.
Hard to say how this will play out.

Chaos in Iran

What is to happen in Iran is very difficult to ascertain.
It is likely that the economy will collapse in the next few months as sanctions start to bite.
The question that remains is whether it will be enough to topple the government.
It does not seem likely that any economic collapse will lead to a new revolution.
All hope that the government will fall as the late Shaw fell.
Hard to see a coup that will oust the present leadership.
If that's the case Iran may continue to limp through will the nuclear deal with all other partners.
It is hard to see them upgrading their nuclear program and risking a military strike from the US.
They must believe that Trump will not hesitate to strike if there is a perceived threat to the US or Israel.
They are not sure what to do.
They will finally need to renegotiate the nuclear pact if they feel their rule is in danger.
It is hard seeing them crawling back to the table under almost any circumstances.
Hard to say what might happen now.
Lets wait and see.

The deal of the Century

It is hard to believe that the smartest or best intentioned people can solve a problem that is inherently insolvable.
The deal of the century as it is being called cannot solve a conflict that is defined by the continuation of the conflict.
The Palestinain authority and the other factions in the Gaza strip are defined by the "struggle".
There is no peace deal that can be proposed that can solve the issue.
There cannot be and will not be a Palastinain state with East Jerusalem as its capital .
The Arabs know deep down that Israel will never relinqiush control over the temple mount and the Western Wall.
The Arab side has said clearly that there is no interest in any plan that does not consist of a complete withdrawal from all areas captured in 1967.
Israel will never ever do this.
The moderate Arab states who used the Palestiain issue to harm Israel have much more important things on their mind now.
Its all a great waste of time.
May cause a war when it all hits the fan.

Trump peace plan

President Trumps Son in Law Jared Kushner and special envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt are to announce very soon a new Peace plan.
Many have tried and not succeeded to do this.
To be skeptical as to the viability of a workable deal seems reasonable.
Nonetheless Trump has been doing seemingly impossible things of late in many areas so it is difficult to completely rule out some progress.
The plan will be regional and will involve all parties to conflict.
It will involve massive amounts of money destined to build infrastructure in the Gaza strip and elsewhere.The main problems seem to be the lack of real transparency in the Palestinian authority and the dictatorship in the Gaza strip.
It is hard to say what really might happen when plan is placed on table but likely very little.
The basic problem was and remains that Israel is not being accepted as a Jewish State
The Arab side is waiting for a different president to get concessions from the Israelis.

It is possible that a combo of the death of Machmoud Abas And a complete collapse of rule in Gaza might shake things up a bit.
It is hard to see any real long term solution to this mess of over 100 years.
Trump after all cannot do the impossible.

Looming war in the Gaza Strip

Something has to give and soon.
The constant exchange of fire along the Israel and Gazan border will sooner or later lead to war.
The Hamas and Jihad Islami are playing Russian Roulette gambling that nothing can cause the IDF to reenter the strip for many diffrent reasons.
They are wrong
There is a plan and maybe even a date but more importanly thre seem to be clear hints that something is about to happen.
The Prime minister Defens minister and chief of staff all say that something is about to happen.
Clearly if a rocket attack kills civilians in Israel that would be a trigger for a full scale invasion of the strip.
There must be a set plan of what to do when the IDF finally retakes Gaza.
It's about to happen .
The worst is yet to come.

The New war of attrition

After the six-day war there began a war of attrition between Israel and the Egyptian army which lasted until the Yom Kippur war in 1973.
It was a bitter war that had a demoralizing effect on the Israeli army.
It is happening again now along the border between Israel and the Gaza strip.
Almost constant barrage of rockets or incendiary Kites from the Gazan side with retaliatory strikes from Israel.
It cannot and will not go on like this for much longer.
The IDF does not want to enter the strip and is even less interested in being responsible for the 2 million people who live there.
At some point it will happen though.
There will be little choice.
The mess created by the unilateral withdrawal from the strip over ten years ago is still with us.
There is no optimum solution but there are some steps that could be partial solutions.
An entire section of the Sinai desert should be allocated for Gazan residents.
Infrastructure for at least 50,000 new homes should be built to allow the true poorest of Gazan residents adequate housing.
With the rampant corruption in Gaza it may be very difficult to allocate these housing units fairly.
A European country together with the UN might coordinate such a project.
This idea is likely to be a part of the peace plan that will be presented some day by President Trumps team.
The main leaders of the Hamas and Jihad movement will need to be killed or arrested.
This will be no easy task to say the least/
If the Egyptian military could govern the strip and its new section until new elections are held.
The Hamas and Jihad need to be outlawed and more normal parties should run in elections.
This is also a very difficult task indeed.
As much territory along the coastline should be allocated to the Gazan population to ease the extreme poverty and overcrowding.
There are many more steps to take after the takeover of Israel in the next foray into the strip
It is going to happen sooner or later
Probably sooner.

Th e Israeli army , the draft and religous soldeirs

The real question lies whether Israel really wants Religous soldiers in its ranks.
A week ago a highly decorated officer who is clearly religous was denied a key post that many thought he deserved.
The trend of marginilizing religous soldiers in the Israeli army is not new , it has been going on for a long time ideed.
One the one hand the IDF claims it wants religous soldiers and on the other does everthing to make sure the Army does not get too religous.
The examples of this are many.
The present head of the army is seen as being concerned over religous indoctrination in the army and has done specific things to limit the scope of the Rabbinate of the army and its influence on soldiers.
As more and more religous soldiers and even more CHARDIE soldiers fill the ranks of the IDF this should be a concern for all.
A Jewidh army travels on Jewih ethics.
Denying and fighting that is dangerous for moral and the armies ultimate success.

He knows what he doing

It's hard for many Trump haters to admit that he seems to know what he is doing.
He has revititlized the American economy lowering unemployment and send the stock market to new all time highs.
He has semingly done the impossible and brought North Korea to its senses by meeting with tis leader a few weeks ago.
He has cancelled the Iran nuclear deal which posed a great threat to the United States and its ally Israel.
He is successful . His opponenets are having diffifculty attacking him as they too feel that he is a man of his word and is likely to be reelected for a second term.
There has not been a reasonable candidate that the democrats have put forth that will challenge him.
With good reason.
They are afraid to lose their polotical shirts.
Rumors abound that Michelle Obama may give it a whirl.
That should be fun.
Did I mention he will likely win the Nobel Peace prize?