War is next.

The war of attrition on the Gaza strip border is becoming unmanagable.
No on in Israel really wants to send the Israeli army back into the strip any time soon.
There will be casualties and the outcome of taking control over the strip with its two million people is not tempting to say the least.
The army is waiting for the rains to come that might limit damage that incendiary balloons cause.
Bizarre tactics for a powerhouse army like the IDF.
There are limitations of strength.
The thought of horror of and people crisis in the strip hae made the IDF just try to wait it out for the winter.
It won't work and the IDF knows it.
War will break out soonr or later and its up to the commanders to figure out how to enter the strip with minimum or no casualties at all.
A tall task indeed.
There will likely be a direct assault from the sea and border to try to quickly kill the main Hamas and Jihad terrorists and declare martial law.
This plan is being rehearsed over and over.
Egypt will be asked possibly to act as a mediator once the IDF is in charge one more.
There will be a hunt for all the senior Hamas operatives.
All these options are very bad ones.
That is why the IDF is not entering the strip now.
It will happen sooner or later.
Just a matter of time.

Israel and the Gaza Strip

Another violent and bloody confrontation between Hamas and Israel.
Hundreds of rockets shot into Israel while Irael retaliates.
When might this end?
There is no real solution to all this.
The constant war of attrition is unaceptable and unsustainable.
Reentering the strip and staying there after leaving it many years ago will be very dificult as Israel will take responsibility for all the mess in the strip.
And do it goes another br? rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrround of violence that goes nowhere.
Eventually the IDF will need to retake the strip and when that happens it will be ugly very ugly.
It was close this time.
Very close

US Iran crisis

Iran has threatened to close the straits of Hormuz if there is an embargo of exports of Iranian oil.
That would be an act of war.
The spectacle of a military confrontation between Iran and the US is becoming increasingly likely in the wake of new sanctions.
There is clearly no match between the the two navies but that may mean very little.
Iran may use a confrontation with the US as a rallying cry to unite its people in the wake of severe economic hardship.
It might be the only thing that will save the regime in Teheran.
A war between the US and Teheran?
Might happen.

The Palestinian Authority, whats next?

Israel has just enacted a law to deduct from all payments to the Palestinian Authority money being payed out to the family of terrorists.
The PA has said another

Red

line has been crossed.
So many Red lines lines have been crossed over the years that few pay attention any more.
The real question is how long will Abu Mazen live and what is the next step for the PA.
As the US peace plan is about to be launched and promptly rejected by the PA it is hard to see how things are to improve.
They will not of course.
The PA in Ramalla and the Hamas in Gaza are out of money.
when they reject the American peace initiative they will likely cease to receive money from many Arab countries. It is just a matter of time until the PA collapses and turns into complete chaos.
Hard to say how this will play out.

Chaos in Iran

What is to happen in Iran is very difficult to ascertain.
It is likely that the economy will collapse in the next few months as sanctions start to bite.
The question that remains is whether it will be enough to topple the government.
It does not seem likely that any economic collapse will lead to a new revolution.
All hope that the government will fall as the late Shaw fell.
Hard to see a coup that will oust the present leadership.
If that's the case Iran may continue to limp through will the nuclear deal with all other partners.
It is hard to see them upgrading their nuclear program and risking a military strike from the US.
They must believe that Trump will not hesitate to strike if there is a perceived threat to the US or Israel.
They are not sure what to do.
They will finally need to renegotiate the nuclear pact if they feel their rule is in danger.
It is hard seeing them crawling back to the table under almost any circumstances.
Hard to say what might happen now.
Lets wait and see.

The deal of the Century

It is hard to believe that the smartest or best intentioned people can solve a problem that is inherently insolvable.
The deal of the century as it is being called cannot solve a conflict that is defined by the continuation of the conflict.
The Palestinain authority and the other factions in the Gaza strip are defined by the "struggle".
There is no peace deal that can be proposed that can solve the issue.
There cannot be and will not be a Palastinain state with East Jerusalem as its capital .
The Arabs know deep down that Israel will never relinqiush control over the temple mount and the Western Wall.
The Arab side has said clearly that there is no interest in any plan that does not consist of a complete withdrawal from all areas captured in 1967.
Israel will never ever do this.
The moderate Arab states who used the Palestiain issue to harm Israel have much more important things on their mind now.
Its all a great waste of time.
May cause a war when it all hits the fan.

Trump peace plan

President Trumps Son in Law Jared Kushner and special envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt are to announce very soon a new Peace plan.
Many have tried and not succeeded to do this.
To be skeptical as to the viability of a workable deal seems reasonable.
Nonetheless Trump has been doing seemingly impossible things of late in many areas so it is difficult to completely rule out some progress.
The plan will be regional and will involve all parties to conflict.
It will involve massive amounts of money destined to build infrastructure in the Gaza strip and elsewhere.The main problems seem to be the lack of real transparency in the Palestinian authority and the dictatorship in the Gaza strip.
It is hard to say what really might happen when plan is placed on table but likely very little.
The basic problem was and remains that Israel is not being accepted as a Jewish State
The Arab side is waiting for a different president to get concessions from the Israelis.

It is possible that a combo of the death of Machmoud Abas And a complete collapse of rule in Gaza might shake things up a bit.
It is hard to see any real long term solution to this mess of over 100 years.
Trump after all cannot do the impossible.

Looming war in the Gaza Strip

Something has to give and soon.
The constant exchange of fire along the Israel and Gazan border will sooner or later lead to war.
The Hamas and Jihad Islami are playing Russian Roulette gambling that nothing can cause the IDF to reenter the strip for many diffrent reasons.
They are wrong
There is a plan and maybe even a date but more importanly thre seem to be clear hints that something is about to happen.
The Prime minister Defens minister and chief of staff all say that something is about to happen.
Clearly if a rocket attack kills civilians in Israel that would be a trigger for a full scale invasion of the strip.
There must be a set plan of what to do when the IDF finally retakes Gaza.
It's about to happen .
The worst is yet to come.

The New war of attrition

After the six-day war there began a war of attrition between Israel and the Egyptian army which lasted until the Yom Kippur war in 1973.
It was a bitter war that had a demoralizing effect on the Israeli army.
It is happening again now along the border between Israel and the Gaza strip.
Almost constant barrage of rockets or incendiary Kites from the Gazan side with retaliatory strikes from Israel.
It cannot and will not go on like this for much longer.
The IDF does not want to enter the strip and is even less interested in being responsible for the 2 million people who live there.
At some point it will happen though.
There will be little choice.
The mess created by the unilateral withdrawal from the strip over ten years ago is still with us.
There is no optimum solution but there are some steps that could be partial solutions.
An entire section of the Sinai desert should be allocated for Gazan residents.
Infrastructure for at least 50,000 new homes should be built to allow the true poorest of Gazan residents adequate housing.
With the rampant corruption in Gaza it may be very difficult to allocate these housing units fairly.
A European country together with the UN might coordinate such a project.
This idea is likely to be a part of the peace plan that will be presented some day by President Trumps team.
The main leaders of the Hamas and Jihad movement will need to be killed or arrested.
This will be no easy task to say the least/
If the Egyptian military could govern the strip and its new section until new elections are held.
The Hamas and Jihad need to be outlawed and more normal parties should run in elections.
This is also a very difficult task indeed.
As much territory along the coastline should be allocated to the Gazan population to ease the extreme poverty and overcrowding.
There are many more steps to take after the takeover of Israel in the next foray into the strip
It is going to happen sooner or later
Probably sooner.

Th e Israeli army , the draft and religous soldeirs

The real question lies whether Israel really wants Religous soldiers in its ranks.
A week ago a highly decorated officer who is clearly religous was denied a key post that many thought he deserved.
The trend of marginilizing religous soldiers in the Israeli army is not new , it has been going on for a long time ideed.
One the one hand the IDF claims it wants religous soldiers and on the other does everthing to make sure the Army does not get too religous.
The examples of this are many.
The present head of the army is seen as being concerned over religous indoctrination in the army and has done specific things to limit the scope of the Rabbinate of the army and its influence on soldiers.
As more and more religous soldiers and even more CHARDIE soldiers fill the ranks of the IDF this should be a concern for all.
A Jewidh army travels on Jewih ethics.
Denying and fighting that is dangerous for moral and the armies ultimate success.

He knows what he doing

It's hard for many Trump haters to admit that he seems to know what he is doing.
He has revititlized the American economy lowering unemployment and send the stock market to new all time highs.
He has semingly done the impossible and brought North Korea to its senses by meeting with tis leader a few weeks ago.
He has cancelled the Iran nuclear deal which posed a great threat to the United States and its ally Israel.
He is successful . His opponenets are having diffifculty attacking him as they too feel that he is a man of his word and is likely to be reelected for a second term.
There has not been a reasonable candidate that the democrats have put forth that will challenge him.
With good reason.
They are afraid to lose their polotical shirts.
Rumors abound that Michelle Obama may give it a whirl.
That should be fun.
Did I mention he will likely win the Nobel Peace prize?

The Middle East

There are rumblings both in northern Israel and Southern Israel and they both do no tbode well.
It seems that the North which involves Irans prozy Hizbullah is a more dangerous and volatile area.
The Hamas in the south are crippled financially and do not seem ready for war.
They have suffered in previus wars and likley do not want the IDF to crush them again.
Some say that the desperation will lead the Hama and others in the strip to desperate measures.
Hard to say.
Israel has warned that if war breaks out then the Hamas will be erdicated in the strip.
This is scaring Hamas a bit and may make it hesitant to seek confronation with Israel.
The Hizbullah is an entire different story.
Iran is seeking confrontation and is testing the waters with a drone attack a bout a week ago..
The winds of war are starting to be felt.

The Israeli prime minister

So he is being investigated.
So what else is new?
A very long dragged out process that will likley tax evryones energy and lead nowhere.
The Palestinians likely will hope the Israeli left gets to power.
They are living in a dream world of sorts.
If Neyanyahu is indeed indicted then things might get interesting regarding who takes over.
Not likely in any event.

Trumps looking good

The stock market had a mini-crash but is going up again.
Trump is looking smart and is running country like a business.
People are back to work and everyone seems happier.
He is likely a shoe in to get reelected despite the media being against him.
The US ecomomy is rocking and that my friends is what people really care about.
He will be president until the end of second term.
Then Pence.

State of the Union

Trumps speech was terrific.
He seems a shoe in to get reelected.
Things are better in the US and people are working and making money.
Many hwo did not vote for Trump should be happy he got elected as they are working again and off welfare.
People who have invested in the market have made lots of money as well.
The market has soared since Trump took office.
Hard to argue with success.
Many polls are out saying he is unpopular.
Fake news biig time.
Unemployent is low and people are earning more money.
Not complicated.
The US will save money not granting aid to anti American countries which may offset som eof the Tax cuts looming.
He is a shoe in to be reelected.
President Pence in in 2024 sounds OK

Pence Trump and all the rest

He did mention a two state solution.
Only if the parties agree.
They never will.
The re is no clear solution to this conflict.
The Arab nationalistic movement did not does not and will not accept the Jews here in Israel.
That remains the core source of the conflict.
There is little reason to believe that this will change any time soon if ever.
The demographic problem remains as there is no chance of a so called Palestinian state.
As Israel slowly anexese Judea and Samaria to its legal boundaries.
These have some solutions which all have flaws but are doable.
There will never be a Palestinian State.
It won't happen.

The PLO is in shambles

Talk about a bad week or month or year.
The head of the PLO has lost it with verbal abuse of almost everyone.
He has cursed President Trump by saying his house should be destroyed.
Sounds like incitement to me.
There is nothing left for the PLO to do other than continue sort of the current situation.
This would mean security arrangements with Israel and continued funding by the US or just giving up on the Palestinian authority.
The latter will likely not happen as to much money is involved.
They will seek permanent member status at the UN.
Who will fund all this silliness? Time will tell how this plays out.

Israel and the Palestinian Authority- Whats next?

President trumps "deal" regarding a middle east peace treaty has become almost public.
Extension of the Gaza strip into the Egyptian Sinai and autonomy for area A and B.
Area C will be annexed to Israel and all living there will be given the option of Israeli citizenship.
Thats the deal.
Of course the Arab side has rejected this deal as it is not focused on the destruction of Israel.
So what happens now? There could be a temporary deal that includes everything that the permanent deal has except for a recognition of a Palestinian state and the end of all hostilities.
A war may happen in the summer in the Gaza strip.
If this happens then the Hamas leaders will be killed and the PLO may take over and implement this temporary deal.
Hard to say what comes next.

Iran- the beginning of the end of the regime

Iran is going down the drain or so it seems.
Hard to ascertain what is really going on but things look difficult for the Iranian leadership.
Things become even bleaker for Hamas as it is dependent on Iran for much needed funds just to survive.
Hard to understand where 1.2 billion dollars went that the US gave to Iran after nuclear deal.
It went into corrupt pockets and funded terror around the world.
The Iranians have had enough and things are coming apart at the seems.
Hard to say what comes next or how fast things come apart.
It is happening very fast and lets all hope it does not take long.
Won't be pretty.