The next fifty yers

Hard to imagine that Judea and Samaria will be under military rule for the next fifty years.
The first fifty seem enough.
The biggest proponents of the two state solution have given up on this idea.
It won't happen they say, it can't happen.
Gideon Levi a very famous leftist extremist has said the two state solution is not possible anymore.
He of course is for a one state solution now but the Local Arabs do not want a one state solution as they wish to establish another Arab state with no trace of Israel.
They want to perpetuate the conflict and will never agree to any solution whatsoever.
They have become messianic and openly say next year in liberated Jerusalem.
This wishful thinking makes any peace deal impossible.
Gideon Levi does not understand that the Arabs do not even want a one state solution.
He may never understand that.
There has to be unilateral steps taken by Israel to annex the areas in Judea and Samaria.
This should be the threat at least if the current talks break down as they must.

Nothing is happening

There is no peace process, there never was.
All attempts to impose or even negotiate some type of interim agreement will go nowhere.
Jason Greenblatt is coming again to the middle east to break a stalemate.
Good luck.
There are those that fear some kind of agreement that will not change the status of Jerusalem and not expel any Jews from Judea and Samaria.
The PA president will be forced into an agreement of this kind goes the thinking.
He will have no choice.
This "interim" agreement is something neither side wants or believes in.
The sick frail leader of the PA would risk the remainder of his life to even consider such a agreement.
It is possible that Israel would agree on a interim agreement that would solidify autonomy in the B and C sections.
That would be conditional on a number of things that the PA has consistently rejected.
This bizarre continuation of informal talks has one purpose only.
To continue to buy time indefinitely.
The PA somehow believes that Israel at some point will capitulate, it believes time is on their side.
It has believed so for fifty years.
There will not be an interim agreement or a permanent one.
It is an impossibility.
What then is to happen in the next fifty years?
Incredibly enough probably not much.
Incredible in the sense that its hard to imagine another fifty years of military rule in Judea and Samaria.
But as it is in other areas when you do nothing then nothing will happen.
The Israelis may annex some areas close to Israel.
This will not change things ostensibly.
These moves will be called illegal by the PA and others.
Then new negotiations will start.
These talks will lead nowhere as all others before.
There will be threats by all the classic enemies of Israel and possibly another mini-revolt of local Israeli Arabs.
All those things will not change things too much.
The purpose of the Arab side is to destroy Israel.
It's that simple and has not changed in fifty or even one hundred years.
It will not change in the next fifty or even hundred years.
It's a stark reality and not a comfortable idea but it is the stark reality.
There are things that don't change and this is one of them.
There can be only unilateral moves as there is almost nothing the sides agree upon.
Major moves in this regard will not happen in all probability.
But you never know I suppose.
It's very similar to a soap opera that guarantees the same plot whenever you watch.
Let's see what happens.

The next war in Gaza

It is a matter of time.
The humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip is getting worse by the day.
There is almost no industry and almost no jobs in the private sector.
The bulk of foreign aid goes to build tunnels that are often found and later destroyed.
It has become one big jail as Israel and Egypt are forced to limit passage because of security concerns.
This will breed a new round of war very soon, maybe even this summer.
The spark that will start this war is difficult to predict but many possibilities abound.
Any rocket attack that kills any Israeli will likely trigger a massive response from the IDF which in turn could trigger an all out war.
This is not a question of if this is a question of when.
Israel this time will likely completely retake the strip and declare it a military zone.
They will have no choice.
A curfew will be put in place and the army will hunt down the leaders of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
How will all the residents of Gaza be fed?
Who will pay for the electricity?
It will be a very big mess.
The moderate Arab countries will pitch in to rebuild the strip and help provide infrastructure to help so many impoverished Gazans.
There cannot be another war after the next war in Gaza.
Enough is enough

Sunni vs Shia vs everyone else

The extreme Sunni group Isis has attacked the Shia extreme country of Iran.
Bizarre and ironic that Iran is getting attacked by Isis as they actively support terror in so many places.
It seems that everybody is killing everybody else.
The bloody battle between Shia and Sunni is everywhere.
In that mix is the Alawi tribe and the west.
The Sunni faction of Isis seems to want to kill everybody everywhere.
They Sympathize with the Hamas though they think their brand of Islam is not extreme enough.
As this is happening Saudia Arabia where a more liberal type of Sunni ideology is followed is lashing out at Qatar that actively supports the Hamas.
All this means that the two mortal enemies of Israel the Hamas and the Hizbullah are mortal enemies of each other.
They hate Israel so much that they contemplate joining forces when they go to war with Israel.
They have not done so at this time yet.
If Isis can continue to attack Iran and Iran strikes out against Isil then things get very complicated indeed.
Israel is almost everyone's enemy but the division among Sunni and Shia is keeping them at bay for the meantime.
Qatars isolation will limit support for the Hamas and Moslem Brotherhood and start another war with Israel.
In the next war with Hamas Israel will take over the Gaza strip once again as it had till its pullout.
The question arises what will it do with all the Arabs inhabitants of Gaza.
There may be a plan right now in the eventuality of such a war.
If Egypt gets enough money it can incorporate an enlarged Gaza strip with some unused Egyptian territory.
Industry wil be needed to be brought to the strip to provide jobs and money.
A modern Marshall plan of sorts.
The extremists needed to be killed.
Should be fun.

The next 50 years

The 100th anniversary of the six-day war is halfway there.
There will likely be even then people who will claim that the the 2 state solution is the only way.
There will always be crazy people that will continue to say crazy things.
There will not be a Palestinian state in fifty years or a hundred years.
What then is to happen in the next 50 years from now?
There will slowly evolve a one state reality from the river to the sea.
The Hamas in Gaza will likely collapse in the next few years and reintegrate itself into Egypt.
As far the Arabs in Judea and Samria some will become Israeli citizens and some will become Jordanian citizens.
Jordan may be taken over by militant Palestinians or other kinds of extremist factions and may cease to exist as we know it.
It may become a Palestinian state after all.
If that happens and the Hamas government collapses as it must then that new entity may wage war with Israel.
Israel may need to attack and recover transjordan.
Iran will probably try to get a nuclear weapon but either the US or Israel will prevent them from doing so by force.
Israel will grow stronger and most of the Jews of the world will be living in it.
More reasonable Arab countries may become real allies of Israel like Saudi Arabia.
In fifty years from now the writer of these lines will no longer be with us.
But who knows?

Its one state-de facto

Only the most stubborn and a bit crazy still talk about the two state solution.
The reality is that there is only one state from the river to the sea with different enclaves in certain areas.
The area of this state pre 1967 is governed by the basic judiciary system of most democratic countries.
Across the imaginary green line it becomes more complicated as there are areas called A and B that there is limited access to Jewish Israelis and Jewish towns that have limited access to Non Israeli Arabs.
But almost all these places are interconnected with highways and electricity.
The laws are different as the residents over line are governed by the army while Jewish resident are governed by a combination of the army and other Israeli law.
This hodge podge arrangement is cumbersome but necessary for now.
When all or most come to conclusion that the one state solution is the only way forward then these things will change.
The arab inhabitants that will become citizens will enjoy rights not had by any Arabs in the region.
Some will get the vote while some will vote in Jordan.
In the meantime there will be massive building in Judea and Samaria that will alleviate the housing shortage and give Arabs and Jews alike work.
It is pointless to continue to discuss something that can never be.
The Arabs continue to discuss this because it perpetuates the 50 year old so called "occupation" and some Israelis continue to discuss this because they are afraid of a bi national country.
It won't be bi national.
Many more Jews will emigrate to Israel and settle new areas.
Many Arabs when given better options will leave.
In any case the vote will be given slowly to the Arab population keeping always a clear Jewish majority in the country.
What will things look like in 10 years time?
No much different than things look now.
In 20 years most will finally except the one state solution.
In the meantime more settlements need to be built everywhere,
We shall see what happens.

The Palestinian state- it will never happen

It will not happen ever.
For so many reasons that I will discuss.
The fundamental underlying reason is that the Palestinians themselves do not want a state.
Yes, that's right they had many chances and they turned them all down.
Many of them refuse to recognize the reality of the only other option on the table, the one state solution.
They are not interested even in a bi national state for they fear this will not destroy Israel.
The Palestinian state that they seek is a tool to destroy the Jewish state of Israel.
Nothing more and nothing less.
The most well known former supporters of the two state solution have said that it is an impossibility.
They are pushing for a one state solution with one man one vote.
The Palestinians should agree to this option and try to democratically achieve what they say they want.
They do not as this will not in their opinion lead to the destruction of Israel.
So the Palestinians do not want a one state solution and they know there will never be a two state solution!.
So what the hell do they want?
They want to continue talking about a two state solution that will never happen and keep the status quo.
It sounds crazy but it is true, they believe that slowly but surely Israel will grow tired of the hundred year war and something will give.
They can wait another fifty years or even more.
The only way to start to destroy the hope of destroying Israel is to start annexing territory in Judea and Samaria.
Start massive building everywhere in greater Israel.
Offer normal law abiding Arab citizens in Judea and Samaria full citizenship in places annexed by Israel. Stop this charade that is bad for all,
There will never be another Arab state west of the Jordan.
Enough is enough

The Dark Ages

As Europe tries to grapple with constant terror on its streets, no one has come up with any real solutions.
Western civil liberties will stop the rounding up of thousands of suspects as may be needed in this case.
The British authorities know the identities of the latest terrorists and knew about them before.
As they and others had not committed a crime before they were not arrested just watched from afar.
All people that have traveled to a terrorist haven in last few years should be arrested or placed under constant surveillance.
The next perpetrators will probably be known to British authorities they are potential suspects that may strike.
How do you address such threats within the confines of a liberal western country?
If there are a few more attacks then some kind of emergency measures may be taken that might allow the detainment of a some people that might strike.
Its a bit bizarre of the stories you hear that certain Israeli figures were worried about arrest over alleged war crimes.
These Israelis were mainly accused of fighting terrorist elements in the middle east.
The ideological cousins of the terrorists in London.
Many in England and across Europe are scared, very scared.
The very worst is yet to come.

World Terror - Dark ages

As I said in my last blog post the Terror wave is only getting started.
There is little that can be done at this point.
There are few people who are armed in the UK making a knife attack a viable option for terrorists.
That of course cannot change overnight and the English have plenty to worry about.
There is no doubt that there will be another attack, its just a question of time.
There is nothing easier than plowing a truck or car into a crowd somewhere and killing people.
If there are sleeper cells and there are sleeper cells they will wait a bit and strike again.
Europe is headed for a modern dark age that violence and gore will be a part of Europe in the future.
It will not be the pestilence but rather the scourge of Islam that is gripping the world today.
There will be tighter immigration laws in some places but that will not stop the present scourge.
Nothing will at this point.
The Europeans have brought this upon themselves.
Dark ages all over again...