Thursday, March 28, 2019

War

It will happen sooner or later.
The Hamas and Jihad in the Gaa strip are egging on Israel and war is imminent.
It almost happened a few days ago, it might happen tommrrow.
Hard to say exactly when but it will happen.
It may not involve a complete land invasion though it is hard to see avoiding ground troops alltogether.
There will be special forces sent to kill the leadership of the Hamas and Jihad.
What exactly happens next is hard to say.
Israel has been planning this move for a while and wants to avoid causulties as much as possible.
It is also unclear what is to be done with the civilian population of the strip and the basic needs they lack.
It is likely to happen in next few wees or months.
If any missle that is fired into Israel ills any civilians then all bets are truly off.
Everybody is waiting for something.
That something is War.
Whether the Nothen border heats up as well is another question.
We will all now soon enough.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

The deal of the Century

President Trump has been discussing this for a while.
The deal which will finally bring peace and prosperity to the middle east.
He has the best intentions but will learn the hard way that this "deal" is not doable.
It will be outright rejected by the Palestinians for not meeting what they call the minimum needs for a peace agreement.
These were are and will be the armistice lines of before the outbreak of the six-day war in 1967.
That would mean Jerusalem would be divided again.
This demand is a non-starter for almost every Jewish Israeli and seemingly cannot happen.
How the deal of the century circumvents this problem is anyones guess.
The Palestinians have made it abundantly clear that they will never compromise on this issue.
The likely scenario of the introduction of this peace plan will be much different than President Trump hopes.
Let me explain.
The Israeli Prime Minister will likely be indicted on bribery charges after upcoming elections.
This long process which is dependent on a pre indictment hearing will force Bibi to make a coalition with the hard right wingers in his new governmnet.
This will likely result in demands from colalition partners for annexation of a large part of Judea and Samaria called the C-section.
Bibi would prefer to not do this but will not be able to bring in to his goverment parties who have vowed never to join his goverment because of his legal status.
These center left parties would have agreed to some compromise and would be against anexation of any areas.
This anexation process and the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip will lead to a new war between Israel and Arabs living in Gaza and even in Judea and Samaria.
Ironically those who wish to rid Israel of Bibi and his right wing policies will recieve and even more extreme Bibi because of coalition needs.
War is just a matter of time.