The next war in the Middle east

The next war in the middle east is only a matter of time.
It always is.
Though hizbulah is Shia and Hamas is sunni they are planning a joint effort in the next war.
Or so goes the rumor.
They will both attack at the same time is the guess.
Israel is planning on an attack of this kind and is training.
The reason this was has not broken out yet is that both armies will be defeated or even obliterated.
The Gaza strip will be retaken but south Lebanon wil likely not be captured.
The Hizbullah are waitibg for help from Iran to actually start war.
Unclear what is to happen next.
It is too quiet.

The Middle East

Well what happens now?
The charade of a peace process is quickly becoming less than a charade.
What will happen now?
As president Trump predicted, not much.
An American peace inaitive will offer a larger state in Gaza with limited rule in Judea and Smaria.
That will be the jist of of the plan with vast money offered to launch such a plan.
As the Hamas will not accept such a plan a war is lilkely as soon as the weather improves in the Gaza strip.
Then Egypt will help in helping this start up state in the elongated Gaza strip.
Israel will contemplate anexxing parts of Judea and Samaria to Israel in next few years.
A new real intifada seems unlikely at this point.
You can be sure that the American embassy will be standing before president Trump leaves office.
Going to be fun.

Trump and Jerusalem

Trump and Jerusalem has been the talk of the world lately.
The two state solution is dead , very dead.
so now what?
The two state solution is dead but the process will continue.
The process that never lead anywhere will continue to lead nowhere.
Nothing will happen in all probability in near future.
The Palestinian authority will continue to try to figure out how to stay relevant to continue to receive salaries and handouts from Europe and the US.
To try to maintain a farce is not easy but this is what is happening.
There will be a vote in the general assembly today against the Trump decision.
It has no real meaning but symbolizes the hatred of Israel and the US in international forums.
Will be a fun show today at the UN.
Best show in town.

North Korea and WW3

Not Good.
Kim Jong un is clearly a paranoid nut job that is playing chicken with the world.
What can Trump do?br> Someone needs to take out this maniac.
someone from his inner circle.
It is inconceivable that one man can hold the world hostage.
Something has to give and soon.
Israel is looking at this crisis not just as a bystander.
It is reasonable to assume that Iran will get technology from North Korea to try to attack Israel someday.
Perfection of Rocket and nuclear technology does not bode well for anyone especially Israel.
Lets see what happens.

Trump peace initiative

Ho Hum here we go again.
For all of President Trumps desire to achieve the ultimate deal in the middle east, there is no hope.
Rumors abound regarding the details of this deal but they are not important at all.
There will never be a deal between the parties as the scope of the differences is so great a deal is impossible.
Why do so many continue to try?
There clearly is much at stake at trying to avoid another Arab Israeli war.
The scope of this war is greatly exaggerated as the key players are no longer participants.
Splinter groups such Hamas and Hizbullah do threaten Israel but would not pay any attention to any peace treaty anyway.
But so many have tried to do the impossible and make this deal.
It has not happened in one hundred years, it wont happen now.

Hamas and Fatah

They have joined agreed to join forces, to reconcile.
Is it a joke again?
Not really this time.
Both groups are desperate for money.
They are falling apart and need each other to survive.
This is good news for Israel as any and all negotiations with this new entity are really crazy and will not happen.
This will allow the now dead idea of a Palestinian state to be even more dead.
Who in their sane mind would still discuss this moot nutty and dangerous idea.
Some still talk about a Palestinian state but they don't really believe it themselves.
It won't happen.

Iran is being trumped

Iran is being trumped.
President Trump sees the writing on the wall with regard to the Iranians nuclear ambitions and will not stand by as Iran will become a menace.
The west let North Korea of the hook and is paying a very dear price.
The lesson has been learned.
Iran is nervous, that is clear.
It will take a few years to increase the pressure that was before the last agreement.
Trump is so mad at North Korea that he may take it our on Iran.
Lets see what happens.

North Korea and Iran

The dictator in North Korea is threatening the US, that everyone knows.
What is less known is that this nut is also a threat to Israel.
How so?
Iran is following very closely the developments in the Korea peninsula and will want the blue prints or maybe a bomb or two itself.
What is to stop a Korean or Iranian submarine from taking a functional bomb from North Korea to Iran??
Can the transmission of such a weapon be stopped?
Is Israels or American Intelligence so advanced as to know or stop such a shipment?
It is likely that submarines are watched that go in and out of Iran, maybe.
But how do you stop a e-mail with instructions ??
President Trump is holding an emergency national security meeting in next few hours.
An Israeli official will likely deliver some intelligence.
Trump will need it.

They are talking again

Special envoy of President Trump Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt continue to talk to all sides.
Mr Kushner has even said there will be a new "peace plan" in four months.
The question arises is how long can everyone collectively bang his head against the wall.?
Nothing will happen in four months.
Nothing.
Israel will not pull back to the 1967 borders and will not relinquish territory in Judea and Samaria.
It just won't happen.
Kushner wants to make a regional agreement of sorts that may pump some life into the process.
This agreement will talk about money for the Palestinian authority.
No more and no less.
It will not speak about any withdrawal from any settlements and probably not even say to stop settlement activity.
Hard to see how this is going forward.
The Israeli prime minister has just said there will never be any Israeli withdrawal from any settlement.
Well thats great!
The Arab side demands a COMPLETE withdrawal from all of Judea and Samaria.
Seems like a big gap to me.
An impossible gap that many still think will be settled.
It will not and cannot.
For things to stay the same is not a solution either.
Let's see what happens.

Annexation- there is no other way

Israels prime minister has proposed annexing parts of greater Jerusalem in exchange of "giving" parts of the Arab inhabited North to the PA.
He is very smart and knows that the Arab side will not except this proposal.
The Israeli Arabs certainly will not accept this, it is essaintly a non starter.
Nonetheless it is significant that annexation is being discussed at the highest levels of government.
The Prime Minister does understand that there are few real options for going forward with peace negotiations and is testing the waters with annexation options.
These logical proposals will convince anyone who needs convincing that the Arab side will never come to terms with Israel.
So when will annexation go forward?
There needs to be a simple vote in the knesset that starts this process.
There is not other way forward.

The quiet before the storm

The PA or Palestinian authority is in deep crisis.
Two of the major figures of the PA have severe health issues and may die very soon.
Saeb Berekat who has headed negotiations for the PA for over twenty years is suffering from an acute lung disease which will likely kill him.
Ironically he awaits a lung transplant from an Israeli source to survive.
This is the Israel he has accused for so long as being racist and genocidal.
The head of the PA is also suffering from health issues as rumors are saying different things as to how severe they might be.
If these two figures will go the vacuum that will be created will be substantive.
How all this will change the nature of the conflict is truly hard to predict.
To make things more complicated Hamas is simply destroying itself in the Gaza strip.
It has insisted on preparing for war with Israel instead of trying to rebuild infrastructure in the strip.
It has destroyed the Gaza Strip.
The breakdown of both the PA and Hamas may lead to a breakthrough in the never ending conflict.
President Asisi of Egypt has agreed to give a chunk of Sinai to extend the area of the palestinian area in the Gaza strip.
This idea has been bandied about for a while and now seems to make more sense.
The beleaguered Hamas and PA may agree to take this area and make it its "state"
This might be a adhoc solution for some issues that there seems to be no solution.
The refugee issue which has no real solution could be solved with refugees going to this new area.
The problem is that no one will want to go to a desolate area run by a jihadist extreme organization to live in abject poverty.
Nonetheless this idea may improve somewhat the situation and allow some sort of quiet fro a few years.
The Hamas with all its bellicosity is in a very weal position and is not ready to go to war with Israel.
They have built tunnels and made rockets but are not ready to fight.
Hard to say what will play out.
Israels military is very ready to take over the strip in case of war in a few days.
The next war will be the end of Hamas rule in the Strip.
Hamas seems to sense this and is very hesitant to start a conflict.
Seems to quiet.
That is disconcerting.

Next war

Here in the Middle East its not if a war will break out its just a question of when.
The Hamas seems to be very unready to wage war as their economy and little country are in shambles.
Nonetheless they may try as a desperation move to go to war at some point.
After the summer seems like a low probability as they would have initiated something in the summer.
Hard to gauge when this might start.
Not in next six months.
The Hizbulah has its hands full with its own civil war.
They have a great appetite to attack but also are nervous about the repercussions.
It will happen.
Hang on to your hats.

The brewing storm

The latest terrorist attack that happened on the temple mount has the potential for serious escalation.
It is a powder keg just waiting to explode.
The fact that some of the terrorists were killed on the mount and new security arrangement's were implemented makes this powder keg even more volatile.
This rallying cry of the invasion of "El Aksa" has worked before and will work again.
There are complications in this as the Hamas with all its rhetoric does not want to fight Israel.
Any new intifada has with it a war in Gaza Strip.
The Hamas is not ready.
Nonetheless the brewing storm is self evident and clear.
What might mitigate all this?
Arab leaders who call for calm.
The Hamas never does this.
When this powder keg does explode it will be bad for everyone.
Hold on to your hats.

You need to start somewhere.

The type of peace that involves a two state solution has never been so far off.
In fact it is past far off, it is clearly just wishful thinking.
The religious issues seem insurmountable.
After solving other seemingly impossible issues such as the status of Judea and Samaria the insolvable issue of the temple mount comes into play.
There never will be an agreement that will reconcile the Ancient Jewish claim of the temple mount with a less ancient claim of the Arabs on that site.
But politicians continue to try to do the impossible in a conflict that will fester until clear steps are taken to make clear what will be in the future.
The allies dictated terms to the Japanese after WW2.
This ended the conflict and made sure no others would fester years later.
There needs to be a absolute solution that will make clear to anyone still somewhat sane that there never will be another state west of the Jordan river.
Then and only then will there be a chance for reconciliation.
In fact the Arab state east of the Jordan river is not doing too well either.
You need to start somewhere.

New leader of Labor party

There has been a new leader elected to the Labor party in Israel.
Ho Hum indeed.
His chances of becoming prime minister some day are slim indeed.
He knows it.
As does everyone else.
None the less he was congratulated by the Palestinian leader.
Abu Mazen was and is living in a dream world as he fantasizes about receiving more from a leftist leader than a right wing one.
So he will wait two more years in the hope the left runs the country.
It wont happen and it is all wishful thinking on everyone's part.
Those who believe in a peace process should be upset that Mr. Gabai is talking about becoming prime minister.
He will push Abu Mazen away from negotiations.
It's all so futile.

Palestinians becoming irrelevant

The snubbing of the Palestinian President by the prime minister of India in his recent visit to Israel should not surprise anyone.
No one of real importance really buys into the Palestinians narrative anymore.
Countries have grown tired of endless rhetoric that leads nowhere and are fed up with just donating money to the PA.
The issues that are on the world stage are far more important than the continuing banter of the PA.
North Korea has captured the attention of the world and who really cares about a Palestinian state that will never happen??
As some of these issues fade into irrelevancy there is always a danger of hostilities by Hamas to return the "Palestinian cause" to the headlines.
The threat of a complete takeover of the Gaza strip by the IDF in case of war may discourage new hostilities by Hamas but who knows?
Though the current situation seems unsustainable the issue itself is very low priority.
Hard to say what happens now.
Probably very little.

I told you so

Nothing of substance is happening as far as the peace process goes.
It wont happen in the near future or ever for that matter.
There is no real recipe to stop the over one hundred year old fight.
Some Israelis and academics such as Daniel Pipes has suggested that there be a total victory over the Palestinians that would start a rebuilding based on victorious and vanquished.
Great idea.
It will take many decades to start to implement but it is the best way forward.
It is hard to imagine the Hamas or Islamic Jihad accepting defeat and just walking away.
If the Gaza strip is taken over partially by Egypt and with American money then maybe a post Japan model would work.
Very big maybe.
There needs to be a modern Marshall plan for the Arabs of Gaza that will rebuild the strip and help the residents.
This will cost a lot of money that many Arab states will supply with American backing.
This could be turned into a modern Arab state with commerce and modern infrastructure.
This is probably a Pipes dream (pun intended)and will not be feasible for next 20-30 years but you need to start somewhere.
After Israel enters Gaza for last time there needs to be a plan how to govern the millions who live there.
There are no simple solutions to this problem.
There needs to come forth a leader who advocates some kind of autonomy/ statehood in Gaza that does not seek to take over more territory.
This type of government needs a leader with vision.
Sadly this is not going to happen very soon.
The Japanese model was of complete unconditional surrender something that seems impossible in this neighborhood.
The idea of a Palestinian state pushes back any resolution many decades away.
This madness needs to stop someday.

The next fifty yers

Hard to imagine that Judea and Samaria will be under military rule for the next fifty years.
The first fifty seem enough.
The biggest proponents of the two state solution have given up on this idea.
It won't happen they say, it can't happen.
Gideon Levi a very famous leftist extremist has said the two state solution is not possible anymore.
He of course is for a one state solution now but the Local Arabs do not want a one state solution as they wish to establish another Arab state with no trace of Israel.
They want to perpetuate the conflict and will never agree to any solution whatsoever.
They have become messianic and openly say next year in liberated Jerusalem.
This wishful thinking makes any peace deal impossible.
Gideon Levi does not understand that the Arabs do not even want a one state solution.
He may never understand that.
There has to be unilateral steps taken by Israel to annex the areas in Judea and Samaria.
This should be the threat at least if the current talks break down as they must.

Nothing is happening

There is no peace process, there never was.
All attempts to impose or even negotiate some type of interim agreement will go nowhere.
Jason Greenblatt is coming again to the middle east to break a stalemate.
Good luck.
There are those that fear some kind of agreement that will not change the status of Jerusalem and not expel any Jews from Judea and Samaria.
The PA president will be forced into an agreement of this kind goes the thinking.
He will have no choice.
This "interim" agreement is something neither side wants or believes in.
The sick frail leader of the PA would risk the remainder of his life to even consider such a agreement.
It is possible that Israel would agree on a interim agreement that would solidify autonomy in the B and C sections.
That would be conditional on a number of things that the PA has consistently rejected.
This bizarre continuation of informal talks has one purpose only.
To continue to buy time indefinitely.
The PA somehow believes that Israel at some point will capitulate, it believes time is on their side.
It has believed so for fifty years.
There will not be an interim agreement or a permanent one.
It is an impossibility.
What then is to happen in the next fifty years?
Incredibly enough probably not much.
Incredible in the sense that its hard to imagine another fifty years of military rule in Judea and Samaria.
But as it is in other areas when you do nothing then nothing will happen.
The Israelis may annex some areas close to Israel.
This will not change things ostensibly.
These moves will be called illegal by the PA and others.
Then new negotiations will start.
These talks will lead nowhere as all others before.
There will be threats by all the classic enemies of Israel and possibly another mini-revolt of local Israeli Arabs.
All those things will not change things too much.
The purpose of the Arab side is to destroy Israel.
It's that simple and has not changed in fifty or even one hundred years.
It will not change in the next fifty or even hundred years.
It's a stark reality and not a comfortable idea but it is the stark reality.
There are things that don't change and this is one of them.
There can be only unilateral moves as there is almost nothing the sides agree upon.
Major moves in this regard will not happen in all probability.
But you never know I suppose.
It's very similar to a soap opera that guarantees the same plot whenever you watch.
Let's see what happens.

The next war in Gaza

It is a matter of time.
The humanitarian crisis in the Gaza strip is getting worse by the day.
There is almost no industry and almost no jobs in the private sector.
The bulk of foreign aid goes to build tunnels that are often found and later destroyed.
It has become one big jail as Israel and Egypt are forced to limit passage because of security concerns.
This will breed a new round of war very soon, maybe even this summer.
The spark that will start this war is difficult to predict but many possibilities abound.
Any rocket attack that kills any Israeli will likely trigger a massive response from the IDF which in turn could trigger an all out war.
This is not a question of if this is a question of when.
Israel this time will likely completely retake the strip and declare it a military zone.
They will have no choice.
A curfew will be put in place and the army will hunt down the leaders of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
How will all the residents of Gaza be fed?
Who will pay for the electricity?
It will be a very big mess.
The moderate Arab countries will pitch in to rebuild the strip and help provide infrastructure to help so many impoverished Gazans.
There cannot be another war after the next war in Gaza.
Enough is enough

Sunni vs Shia vs everyone else

The extreme Sunni group Isis has attacked the Shia extreme country of Iran.
Bizarre and ironic that Iran is getting attacked by Isis as they actively support terror in so many places.
It seems that everybody is killing everybody else.
The bloody battle between Shia and Sunni is everywhere.
In that mix is the Alawi tribe and the west.
The Sunni faction of Isis seems to want to kill everybody everywhere.
They Sympathize with the Hamas though they think their brand of Islam is not extreme enough.
As this is happening Saudia Arabia where a more liberal type of Sunni ideology is followed is lashing out at Qatar that actively supports the Hamas.
All this means that the two mortal enemies of Israel the Hamas and the Hizbullah are mortal enemies of each other.
They hate Israel so much that they contemplate joining forces when they go to war with Israel.
They have not done so at this time yet.
If Isis can continue to attack Iran and Iran strikes out against Isil then things get very complicated indeed.
Israel is almost everyone's enemy but the division among Sunni and Shia is keeping them at bay for the meantime.
Qatars isolation will limit support for the Hamas and Moslem Brotherhood and start another war with Israel.
In the next war with Hamas Israel will take over the Gaza strip once again as it had till its pullout.
The question arises what will it do with all the Arabs inhabitants of Gaza.
There may be a plan right now in the eventuality of such a war.
If Egypt gets enough money it can incorporate an enlarged Gaza strip with some unused Egyptian territory.
Industry wil be needed to be brought to the strip to provide jobs and money.
A modern Marshall plan of sorts.
The extremists needed to be killed.
Should be fun.

The next 50 years

The 100th anniversary of the six-day war is halfway there.
There will likely be even then people who will claim that the the 2 state solution is the only way.
There will always be crazy people that will continue to say crazy things.
There will not be a Palestinian state in fifty years or a hundred years.
What then is to happen in the next 50 years from now?
There will slowly evolve a one state reality from the river to the sea.
The Hamas in Gaza will likely collapse in the next few years and reintegrate itself into Egypt.
As far the Arabs in Judea and Samria some will become Israeli citizens and some will become Jordanian citizens.
Jordan may be taken over by militant Palestinians or other kinds of extremist factions and may cease to exist as we know it.
It may become a Palestinian state after all.
If that happens and the Hamas government collapses as it must then that new entity may wage war with Israel.
Israel may need to attack and recover transjordan.
Iran will probably try to get a nuclear weapon but either the US or Israel will prevent them from doing so by force.
Israel will grow stronger and most of the Jews of the world will be living in it.
More reasonable Arab countries may become real allies of Israel like Saudi Arabia.
In fifty years from now the writer of these lines will no longer be with us.
But who knows?

Its one state-de facto

Only the most stubborn and a bit crazy still talk about the two state solution.
The reality is that there is only one state from the river to the sea with different enclaves in certain areas.
The area of this state pre 1967 is governed by the basic judiciary system of most democratic countries.
Across the imaginary green line it becomes more complicated as there are areas called A and B that there is limited access to Jewish Israelis and Jewish towns that have limited access to Non Israeli Arabs.
But almost all these places are interconnected with highways and electricity.
The laws are different as the residents over line are governed by the army while Jewish resident are governed by a combination of the army and other Israeli law.
This hodge podge arrangement is cumbersome but necessary for now.
When all or most come to conclusion that the one state solution is the only way forward then these things will change.
The arab inhabitants that will become citizens will enjoy rights not had by any Arabs in the region.
Some will get the vote while some will vote in Jordan.
In the meantime there will be massive building in Judea and Samaria that will alleviate the housing shortage and give Arabs and Jews alike work.
It is pointless to continue to discuss something that can never be.
The Arabs continue to discuss this because it perpetuates the 50 year old so called "occupation" and some Israelis continue to discuss this because they are afraid of a bi national country.
It won't be bi national.
Many more Jews will emigrate to Israel and settle new areas.
Many Arabs when given better options will leave.
In any case the vote will be given slowly to the Arab population keeping always a clear Jewish majority in the country.
What will things look like in 10 years time?
No much different than things look now.
In 20 years most will finally except the one state solution.
In the meantime more settlements need to be built everywhere,
We shall see what happens.

The Palestinian state- it will never happen

It will not happen ever.
For so many reasons that I will discuss.
The fundamental underlying reason is that the Palestinians themselves do not want a state.
Yes, that's right they had many chances and they turned them all down.
Many of them refuse to recognize the reality of the only other option on the table, the one state solution.
They are not interested even in a bi national state for they fear this will not destroy Israel.
The Palestinian state that they seek is a tool to destroy the Jewish state of Israel.
Nothing more and nothing less.
The most well known former supporters of the two state solution have said that it is an impossibility.
They are pushing for a one state solution with one man one vote.
The Palestinians should agree to this option and try to democratically achieve what they say they want.
They do not as this will not in their opinion lead to the destruction of Israel.
So the Palestinians do not want a one state solution and they know there will never be a two state solution!.
So what the hell do they want?
They want to continue talking about a two state solution that will never happen and keep the status quo.
It sounds crazy but it is true, they believe that slowly but surely Israel will grow tired of the hundred year war and something will give.
They can wait another fifty years or even more.
The only way to start to destroy the hope of destroying Israel is to start annexing territory in Judea and Samaria.
Start massive building everywhere in greater Israel.
Offer normal law abiding Arab citizens in Judea and Samaria full citizenship in places annexed by Israel. Stop this charade that is bad for all,
There will never be another Arab state west of the Jordan.
Enough is enough

The Dark Ages

As Europe tries to grapple with constant terror on its streets, no one has come up with any real solutions.
Western civil liberties will stop the rounding up of thousands of suspects as may be needed in this case.
The British authorities know the identities of the latest terrorists and knew about them before.
As they and others had not committed a crime before they were not arrested just watched from afar.
All people that have traveled to a terrorist haven in last few years should be arrested or placed under constant surveillance.
The next perpetrators will probably be known to British authorities they are potential suspects that may strike.
How do you address such threats within the confines of a liberal western country?
If there are a few more attacks then some kind of emergency measures may be taken that might allow the detainment of a some people that might strike.
Its a bit bizarre of the stories you hear that certain Israeli figures were worried about arrest over alleged war crimes.
These Israelis were mainly accused of fighting terrorist elements in the middle east.
The ideological cousins of the terrorists in London.
Many in England and across Europe are scared, very scared.
The very worst is yet to come.

World Terror - Dark ages

As I said in my last blog post the Terror wave is only getting started.
There is little that can be done at this point.
There are few people who are armed in the UK making a knife attack a viable option for terrorists.
That of course cannot change overnight and the English have plenty to worry about.
There is no doubt that there will be another attack, its just a question of time.
There is nothing easier than plowing a truck or car into a crowd somewhere and killing people.
If there are sleeper cells and there are sleeper cells they will wait a bit and strike again.
Europe is headed for a modern dark age that violence and gore will be a part of Europe in the future.
It will not be the pestilence but rather the scourge of Islam that is gripping the world today.
There will be tighter immigration laws in some places but that will not stop the present scourge.
Nothing will at this point.
The Europeans have brought this upon themselves.
Dark ages all over again...

World Terror

The terrorist attack in Manchester should take no one by surprise, it will happen again and again.
There is little the English or the French can do to completely stop this horror barring extreme steps that are likely illegal.
It is possible that after Isis is defeated in Iraq that the motivation to perform these atrocities will go down but they may go up as well.
What might be done nonetheless?
Some Possibilities...
Immediate cessation of refugees coming to United Kingdom.
Emergency temporary arrest of all known highly suspect operatives.
British forces going to Isis strongholds and destroying Isis where it might be.
None of this will stop the next terrorist attack.
In fact this may continue for the next few years as sleeper cells may be preparing an attack right now.
In fact this is what British security services think is happening.
So all will wait for next bomb.
Carzy? Yes completely.

President Trump said nothing

It was all very nice indeed.
Even heart warming at times but little more than that.
There was a lot of lofty statements about fighting terrorism and peace efforts but nothing concrete.
There is no real peace plan and no real way forward though some have tried to push some type of gradual rolling agreement that would give the Palestinians more territory in newer areas and try to leave unsolved issues for last.
It cannot and will not work as there is no willingness on either side for this arrangement.
There likely will not even be a meeting between Israel and the PA soon and if there is it will just be a meeting and nothing else.
The question then becomes what is next in all this mess?
Probably nothing I am afraid.
Bibi needs to step down and let someone else annex at least parts of Judea and Samaria.
If not then what are the other options? Something has to give at some point one would think.

Is Trump a flake?

Some bizarre things seem to be happening at the White House, very bizarre.
President Trump who by all accounts is pro Israel and pro Jews is acting strangely.
He has convinced himself or deluded himself that peace is at hand in the Middle East.
Nothing could be farther from the truth, Nothing.
Peace or the cessation of hostilities has never been farther away and each day makes the situation worse.
The hedging and hawing of President Trump and his team on the status of Jerusalem will push peace back another 20 years.
There is no government that will cede Jerusalem to anyone and the Arab insistence to that end creates an impassable impasse to any kind of peace.
Hard to comprehend what President Trump would like to do with all this.
He seems to be setting himself up for complete failure.
Why go down this path?
Many scratch their heads in trying to understand as Trump has said many times "what the hell is going on"?
There should not be any real worry as Trump will come and Trump will go and not much will change.
One thing should be clear to all.
There will not be any "deal" anytime soon.
The problem that many are trying to solve is unsolvable.
The Israeli Arabs are trying to replace Israel with another Arab state.
They dream of something that defacto is the destruction of Israel.
Clearly Israel will not agree to be destroyed.
This hundred year war is ongoing.
Its like a soap opera that just continues and continues.
It give diplomats something to do.

Something needs to happen

It will be fifty years since the six-day war soon.
something has to give.
Israel needs to act as the current situation cannot continue as is.
There cannot be military rule forever in Judea and Samaria which some call the west bank.
It must stop at some point, it must.
The governing power that is Israel needs to act so there will not be limbo for another fifty years.
It is an unsustainable situation
Any reasonable person will say so.
Annexation of certain parts of the military areas is essential immediately.
Those who want to cede this area use the logic that the continued status quo is unsustainable.
They are correct.
It is unsustainable.
They propose practical national suicide which ceding Judea and Samaria would be.
The only answer for now is the start of annexation.
It has to happen.
The time is now.

Just playing games

There is no real need to worry about any peace deal between Israel and who those who are called Palestinians.
President Trump and President Abbas were just hanging together for a while.
There will not be any agreement or even any movement towards an agreement.
It is a complete non starter and will only bring more frustration to all sides.
The original sin of recognition of a Palestinian people is still with us and is really the source of the ongoing conflict.
There never was or will ever be a Palestinian people or state.
It is the continual discussion of this bizarre concept that will guarantee continued conflict in the future.
This charade President trump may think is helpful but will learn soon that he has hit a brick wall.
Even if he wanted to convince the Israelis to dismantle all the settlements in Judea and Samria which he does not it can't happen.
There are so many obstacles that a short article like this one cannot cover them all.
The Arabs of former Palestine and present Israel have not and likely will not ever except a presence of Jews in the land of Israel.
It is a sobering unpleasant reality that has not changed in one hundred years.
It will not change.
Those who have good intentions in this regard are naive and will get kicked in the mouth once again.
What will happen next?
Probably more of the same.
The Israeli government needs to show leadership and take action.
Annexation of parts of Judea and Samria is the right thing to do.
In time it will bring some type of long term quiet to the region.
Hard to understand what Trump is thinking.
What does he say all the time?
Lets see what happens?
Lets see what happens.

Annexation- its going to happen

Sooner or later some or all parts of Judea and Samaria will be annexed to the state of Israel.
It is just a matter of time until that happens.
In the next few weeks the first stage of this will happen in the MAALEH ADUMIM area.
There will be screaming and yelling form different places but this will happen because something has to happen and there is a majority in the knesset for this.
There might be a waiting period to possibly include the Ariel and Gush Eztion area.
There is a lot of noise of whats going on but that won't stop the annexation from happening.
The problems will arise in the implementation of the initial annexation process but there will be intensive work done to deal with the new reality.
The smoother the first steps go the faster the other steps will go.
Annexation of Judea and Samaria.
There is no other way...

Jason Greenblatt, Trumps special envoy

Only in Israel does the special envoy have more connection to Judaism then the Jewish leaders of the only Jewish country.He clearly has Israels best interest at heart and will try to avoid conflict while helping his own people.
Jason Greenblat has visited Israel and spoken to the prime minister and head of Palestinian authority.
He spent five hours with Bibi and almost as much time with Abu Mazen.
It is all a big charade that is taking place.
No one seriously thinks that direct negotiations without preconditions will take place anytime soon.
It wont happen.
The head of the PA is clearly worried that American money that the PA survives on will be stopped.
He is playing ball and hoping to survive a few more months.
All know that the conditions for the two state solution are dead but they continue to pretend business as usual.
For the hundredth time or maybe the thousandth time there never will be another Arab state west of the Jordan river.
Even in the impossible scenario that Abu Mazen would agree to a demilitarized state in parts of Judea and Samaria he would be killed.
He will eventually die anyway as he is sick and a heavy smoker.
It's all a good game.
Dangerous game.

What now ?

As things look now the next step seems to be the annexing of the C area that borders Jerusalem.
This will happen in next few weeks as a law will be introduced in the Knesset.
The dilemma as o what exactly should be annexed at first will be severe.
There is a large consensus as to the need to annex but little as to how this annexing should be done.
There needs to be a four year plan that takes advantage of the Trump administration.
These laws will all be challenged in the supreme court of Israel which of late has become more conservative towards laws of this kind.
The process has to start now as these type of annexations are complicated and will take time to implement.
The American embassy will be moved to Jerusalem in the next half year as President Trump will not sign off to delay the moving the way former presidents have done.
He truly would like to make the move but has been told this might endanger lives of Americans around the world.
It will happen nonetheless.
We need to sit back and wait to see how all this develops.

Judea and Samaria- Whats next?

There needs to be annexation of greater Jerusalem very soon.
This will be MAALEH ADUMIM, GIVAT ZEEV, and GUSH EZTION.
These three areas border Jerusalem and will be first to be annexed.
It will add about 60% of Judea and Samaria to Israel ad about 300,000 Jews.
About 70,000 Arabs live in that area that will be offered some type of citizenship.
Offering citizenship to new residents is not new.
It happened 34 years ago when Israel enacted the Golan law annexing the Golan heights to Israel.
Then Druse residents were given Israeli identity cards and told that they had the right to become Israeli citizens.
The process was not easy but most Druse residents of the Golan are in fact Israeli citizens.
The benefits that Arabs will have from this process is enormous.
It will manifest itself in health care education infrastructure and other areas.
It is the only way forward now.
The process must start now as the four years of Donald Trumps presidency are ticking away.
This process cannot be dragged on.
It needs to happen now.

One state or two states

The truth be said there is no perfect solution to the ongoing crisis of over one hundred years of Jew and Arab in the holy land.
One state or two states will not work, nothing will work.
What needs to be done is to limit the damage and friction between Jews and Arabs in the short and long term.
This would mean a combination of the one state and two state solution.
This would be a probable annexation of some of Judea and Samaria.
The parts that have little Arab populace will be first to be annexed.
The rest of Judea and Samaria will be placed in a temporary mode until demographics will allow for more extensive annexation.
Those who hope for a one state solution and thereby seek to destroy Israel are leaving in a dream world.
The annexation will be gradual and very thought out.
Eventually when there is a massive influx of Jews and some exodus of Arabs further annexation can be considered.
Unclear when these annexation laws will be passed.
It will be in the next few months.
This will be very interesting as it unfolds.
Stay tuned!

Trump-tough guy

He seems like the worlds new tough guy.
Standing up to Iran, North Korea and Isis.
He has little time to object to the expansion of some settlements in Judea and Samaria.
The PA does not get this and is pretending that things are as they have been.
That would be an automatic comment by Washington denouncing settlement activity.
The impossibility of a real Palestinian state perhaps has not dawned on them or maybe they prefer the status quo of cushy Jobs from handouts to real improvement for their people.
Trump is to meet Bibi in a few weeks and that will trigger new sanctions on Iran.
They will likely agree on a interim agreement of sorts with regard to the Israeli Palestinian issue.
Trump will likely turn the other eye to all settlement activity and focus on American interests.
There will be a quiet solution for the time being with regard to the embassy issue with the new ambassador working and living in Jerusalem at the American consulate/ embassy.
In a few months it will likely become official.
It's going to be a lot of fun...

World Muslim ban

So trump is doing what he promised to do.
Why are people surprised?
Often good people suffer because of bad people, horrible reality.
There are of course good hard working Muslim people who will suffer because of Jihad extremists at least in the beginning.
There will come a time where there will be clear guidelines as to who comes into the US.
Until that happens the United States has the right to even take extreme measures to protect itself.
Trump was elected on this platform and he is following thru on his campaign promises.
Liberal people as those less so suffer in terrorist attacks and everyone should take the proper steps to protect themselves.
What trump needs to do is infiltrate illegal Mexicans and Muslim groups and arrest those people.
There must be a swift policy of deportation that does not wind through the courts.
There is no choice other than racial profiling with all its legal and ethical problems.
The world is at war with radical Islam and extreme steps need to be taken in that regard.
It seems likely that if sleeper terrorist cells exist in New York or elsewhere in the US they will act soon.
Trump will look bad if there are a string of attacks in the US.
Hard to say how this plays out.
We will see ...

Crazy world

Those who would continue to entertain the possibility of a another Arab state west of the river Jordan are living in a dream world.
They entertain this idea despite the obvious impossibility of its implementation.
Why?
Those in the Palestinian authority have good jobs and great pay funded by the United States and need to do something that is in line with their jobs.
So they continue to discuss something that will never be.
Gives them something to do essentially.
The PA has just received 221 million dollars in the last hours of Obama's presidency.
This American tax payer money will go to fund corrupt cronies in the PA for at least a few more months.
The president of the PA will continue to fly around the world doing nothing but stay in expensive hotels on the dime of the American tax payer.
He and others will continue to live the good life while refusing to come to terms with Israel as a Jewish state.
This money will run out of course as free money is easy to spend.
They will demand a state and the destruction of Israel.
Their belief that Israel will go away somehow has not changed in a hundred years.
A crazy world supports an impossible idea.
Donald Trump does not.

It has started...

President Donald Trump has taken over.
The truth has to be said.
There never will be a Palestinian state.
It can't happen.
It is as clear as the sun in midday.
Those who supported this idea and still cling to it are in a shock mode.
They still mumble their allegiance to this idea as they are still in denial that this idea is dead.
Those who consistently were against this craziness are also a bit confused as what to do now.
The general idea is slow and rolling annexation of the C area near Jerusalem.
Some think that this annexation should be massive and at once.
This will do two things.
It will bury completely the two state solution and at the same time free up the the real estate market.
This rolling annexation will likely start in the next few months in earnest.
The immediate result will be an economic boom in Israel and a partial outcry from the third world.
This outcry will turn into a whimper very soon and thousands of new housing units will be built.

The Palestinian authority will not close down as many think will happen.
They have good jobs and will not give up on those jobs so fast.
There will be a lot of talk about the danger of the abandonment of the "peace process"
But it will stay as talk.
The defacto autonomy will continue as Israel annexes and builds another 200,000 housing units in the next four years.
There needs to be at least 1,000,000 in Judea and Samria by the end of 4 years.
It might take a few more years for people to stop talking about a Palestinian State.
Those that talk will be talking to the wall.
What did Trump say many times.?
Lets see what happens.

Annexation, the next step

The rumor says that President elect Trump will clear any doubt with regard to his promise to move the American embassy to Jerusalem.
He will clearly reiterate his campaign promise to do so ASAP.
There have been threats in this regard but probably nothing of substance will happen when embassy moves.
The Israeli government will likely start the necessary process of rolling annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria.
It will start with the largest settlements that will cease to be settlements.
That would be MAALE ADUMIM and the Eztion bloc.
There is a clear majority in the Knesset for these moves and massive building in these areas.
What will happen when both these events happen?
A practical outcome will be lowering the huge demand for housing in Israel.
The Palestinian Authority will likely disband and another pragmatic entity will run the de facto autonomy that exists now.
Arabs living in Areas designed to be annexed will be offered Israeli citizenship also on a rolling basis.
This was done to the Druse living in the Golan Heights about 36 years ago after the Golan was annexed.
It is not a perfect solution but if done slowly will be best going forward.
In ten years no one will talk about a Palestinian state as there will be another million Jews in the disputed areas.
They won't be disputed anymore like they are now.
This is not to say there will not be terrorism, that likely will never end completely.
Everyone is waiting for Donald Trump to make America great again and help Israel do what it needs to do.
Only a few more days...

Paris Conference and President elect Trump

The latest Paris conference is trying to tie the future President of the United States with regard to the Middle East.
It won't work.
He is resolute in his decision to to move the American Embassy to Jerusalem no matter what.
Beside the fact that it is the right thing to do it will paradoxically it seems give peace a chance.
After all it should be clear in this never ending conflict that Jerusalem will stay in Israeli/ Jewish hands.
When that sinks in (if it ever does) then talking peace may be possible.
It will take another generation for that to happen if it ever does that is.
The so called Palestinian people will not have a state because they are not a people separate from the Arab world.
If they desire they can have autonomy of sorts but they do not want real coexistence.
This is true of the leadership at least.
The rumor says that President Trump will again promise to move the embassy to Jerusalem in his inauguration speech.
This would be huge and put many anti- Israel activists on the defensive.
The threats the US has been receiving about the move will backfire.
Trumo does not like to be bullied or threatened by anybody.
The president of the PA who threatened to rescind his recognition of Israel if the Embassy is moved is a bit laughable.
In any case it is likely that parts of Judea and Samaria that are close to Jerusalem will be annexed to Israel as the Golan was about 36 years ago.
Then the process will start on how best to annex slowly and carefully while still retaining a Jewish majority.
500,000 Jews need to move to Judea Samaria in the next 4-8 years.
Some little boy should tell all those diplomats the truth.
There never was and never will be a Palestinian state.
What a waste of time and money.
Hey it gives those losers in Paris something to do.

Annexation- the only option

There has been another horrible terrorist attack in Jerusalem.
Four Israeli soldiers have been killed and many wounded.
The terrorists family fully supports his actions.
They should be deported to Syria as soon as possible.
The terrorists think that with more violence they will force the Jews out of Jerusalem and greater Israel.
They believe we are temporary here and will leave at some point down the line.
Nothing could be further from the truth but that makes no real difference as they are living in a apocalyptic reality of world domination by radical Islam.
The US moving its embassy to Jerusalem is a step in cementing the idea that the Jews have come back to Jerusalem to stay.
The annexation of large parts of Judea and Samaria will also start to cement that idea.
We Jews are here to stay.
If the really understood that there is no hope to move us from here then the violence would subside.
We must annex and move another 500,000 Jews into Judea and Samaria in the next 4 years.
We have the backing of a the next American administration and must build , build and build some more.
After January 20th the Israeli government will start the legal process of annexing Maale Adumim a very large city near Jerusalem.
This will lead to further annexations.
In these new areas there will be much less problems with building new homes.
This will help with the chronic housing shortage and push the economy forward.
We may witness more terrorist attacks in the coming weeks or months.
Hard to say.