We all wanted to be a wallpaper fly to listen to the conversations between world leaders on the burning issues of the day.
The burning issues are almost unprecedented. The world financial crisis is at its worst since the great depression. A fanatical fundamentalist regime is developing weapons of mass destruction and threatening to destroy Israel and harm the West. It boggles the mind to think if Hitler had a Nuclear Bomb. Now there is a new Hitler that threatens the Jewish state and no one seems to be doing anything about it.
The United States has been at the forefront of efforts to isolate Iran with mixed results so far. Most think that military action is becoming more and more the only option. How will a young president with little or no experience in the international arena deal with his own Nuclear missile crisis? It seems he will be tested as Kennedy was.
This might be a typical conversation between The President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Israel
Netanyahu: Congratulations Mr. President , You are indeed an inspiration to many.
Obama: Thank You Mr. Prime Minister , I should also congratulate you on winning your election.
Netanyahu: yea well it wasn't exactly what I had in mind
Obama: yes I know
Netanyahu: You know as well as I do that this 2 state solution is pointless and ludicrous.
Obama: I know but will never admit saying that
Netanyahu: I have to pretend its an option as well, I think it's the worst possible scenario for all involved.
Obama: 100% of the third worls and 90% of the free world wants this 2 state madness, What can we do?
Netanyahu: its simple Mr. president, very simple. We set up a team to study the issue and come up with solutions. We continue the process and never reach a conclusion.
Obama: can this work? Are people so stupid?
Netanyahu: It has worked till now why should things change now
Obama: Please never tell anybody what I said about the 2 state solution.
Netanyahu: Don't worry Mr. President your secret is safe with me
Obama: What do we do about Iran?
Netanyahu: Simple, we nuke them.
Obama: laughing , that's crazy and you know it.
Netanyahu: okay then , just give us bunker penetrating bombs and we will do the Job.
Obama: ( four letter expletive ) I promised in my campaign to solve this problem diplomatically. I wish I was in Hawaii surfing.
Netanyahu: you don't know how to surf!
Obama: I could learn. IF you Israeli decide to beat the crap out of Iran then I will need to do something
Netanyahu: what would that be?
Obama: not sure. ( obama on his phone ) : Ram Emanuel get in here.
Ram Emanuel : Yes Mr. President
Obama : what do you think we should do with this Iran nuclear crisis?
Ram Emanuel : ( says something in Hebrew to Mr. Netanyahu ) TIKRA OTEM HAPARSEEM HAEYLO.
Obama: Woah, no Hebrew here, what the hell did you say anyway?
Emanuel: Nice tie Mr. Prime minister. Mr President we need to let the Israelis do the dirty work if necessary. We could try a blockade like Kennedy did in 63.
Obama: I am the president and I will decide! We will start a complete blockade of Iran and see if that works. If not then …
Netanyahu: We will attack Iran in 6 months if they do not halt their production of nuclear weapons. We heave no choice.
Obama: what will happen then?
Netahyahu: not sure, maybe third world war maybe nothing. Not sure
Obama: that's great, just terrific.
That might be a conversation that would take place. The free world seems a bit tired in dealing with a new tyrant and Iran is counting on this weakness. If Israel is cornered and forced to attack Iran alone this will be the most significant military operation since the End of the second World War. It is a scenario that few wish to see. It may be the only choice that remains if President Obama is hesitant. If he acts he will have passed his test of his young presidency and this may propel the economy to world to come out of its depression.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Israeli Elections
The right wing in Israel has prevailed.
Many in the country were surprised and shocked when the leader of the kadimah party Zippi Livni was projected by exit polls to edge Likud head Benjamin Netanyahu in Knesset seats. After the initial shock wore off it became clear that Netanyahu would still become Prime minister. Why is that?
In Israel’s parliamentary system a 61 member majority is needed to initiate a new government. The right wing has 65 members in different parties making A left wing government an impossibility.
Wait it gets more complicated.
Netanyahu himself does not want a narrow right wing majority government. He very much prefers a much broader government that will include his rival Zippi Livni. That apparently will not happen. Livni who won edged Netanyahu by one seat will find it very difficult to take orders from him. In addition there seem to be real differences in foreign policy that cosmetic political wrangling will not fix. Bibi is against the 2 state solution and any Israel withdrawal from the Golan heights. These were basic parts of Livnis foreign policy agenda. It is hard to see how they could conduct foreign policy together.
Netanyahu also wanted the present Defense minister to stay on as Israel needed to get ready for a possible strike against Iran. That won’t be happening either. Some have suggested Ehud Barack the present Defense minister stay on against his parties wishes as a looming war with Iran seems more important than his own political party problems.
There are those in Kadimah who would like Livni to become the head of the opposition and wait for Netanyhus Government to fail causing new elections soon. That seems the likely scenario. If the Obama administration will push for Israeli concessions then there will be no movement from BibIs Government. Things will not be easy for the prime minister but then again they never are.
Bibi won’t like it but he may have no choice in the matter
Many in the country were surprised and shocked when the leader of the kadimah party Zippi Livni was projected by exit polls to edge Likud head Benjamin Netanyahu in Knesset seats. After the initial shock wore off it became clear that Netanyahu would still become Prime minister. Why is that?
In Israel’s parliamentary system a 61 member majority is needed to initiate a new government. The right wing has 65 members in different parties making A left wing government an impossibility.
Wait it gets more complicated.
Netanyahu himself does not want a narrow right wing majority government. He very much prefers a much broader government that will include his rival Zippi Livni. That apparently will not happen. Livni who won edged Netanyahu by one seat will find it very difficult to take orders from him. In addition there seem to be real differences in foreign policy that cosmetic political wrangling will not fix. Bibi is against the 2 state solution and any Israel withdrawal from the Golan heights. These were basic parts of Livnis foreign policy agenda. It is hard to see how they could conduct foreign policy together.
Netanyahu also wanted the present Defense minister to stay on as Israel needed to get ready for a possible strike against Iran. That won’t be happening either. Some have suggested Ehud Barack the present Defense minister stay on against his parties wishes as a looming war with Iran seems more important than his own political party problems.
There are those in Kadimah who would like Livni to become the head of the opposition and wait for Netanyhus Government to fail causing new elections soon. That seems the likely scenario. If the Obama administration will push for Israeli concessions then there will be no movement from BibIs Government. Things will not be easy for the prime minister but then again they never are.
Bibi won’t like it but he may have no choice in the matter
Monday, February 9, 2009
Elections again in Israel
Elections come and elections go- Israel is here to stay.
The upcoming Israeli elections are seen as critical to all participants and observers. The Jewish state seemingly at war since its inception now faces its greatest military threat of all. That would be a nuclear Iran. This scenario is completely unacceptable to Israel especially in light of the constant threats by Iran’s president. This is not the only problem Israel is facing. Some of Iran’s supporters namely the Hamas in the South and Hizbullah in the North are waiting for the day to restart wars that have been temporarily stopped.
The isolation that Israel has tried to avoid so desperately by taking at times extreme unilateral actions has backfired badly. Israel is as isolated as ever and is receiving a drubbing in very many circles around the world.
The truth is that very many Israelis seem very frustrated at the inability of their country to be “normal “. The constant conflict that is part of Israeli life does not seem to subside whether the left or right wing governments are in power. This frustration manifests itself in lower rates of army conscripts from more modern areas like Tel-Aviv or Haifa. The burden of army service has fallen on the more traditional ideological communities. Those communities were often mentioned in the casualty reports in the last war between Israel and the Hamas.
It does look like Benjamin Netanyahu will win the election. There are clear differences between him and his prime rival foreign minister Zippi Livni but those differences may mean little to the Arab side. They want a complete withdrawal of Israel forces to pre 1967 lines. Without any compromise at all. No Israeli leader will agree to such far reaching concessions. The outgoing prime minister tried valiantly to leave office with a peace treaty of sorts and was as concession oriented as possible. The Palestinians were not interested. It’s all or nothing from their perspective.
It will be fun anyway.
The upcoming Israeli elections are seen as critical to all participants and observers. The Jewish state seemingly at war since its inception now faces its greatest military threat of all. That would be a nuclear Iran. This scenario is completely unacceptable to Israel especially in light of the constant threats by Iran’s president. This is not the only problem Israel is facing. Some of Iran’s supporters namely the Hamas in the South and Hizbullah in the North are waiting for the day to restart wars that have been temporarily stopped.
The isolation that Israel has tried to avoid so desperately by taking at times extreme unilateral actions has backfired badly. Israel is as isolated as ever and is receiving a drubbing in very many circles around the world.
The truth is that very many Israelis seem very frustrated at the inability of their country to be “normal “. The constant conflict that is part of Israeli life does not seem to subside whether the left or right wing governments are in power. This frustration manifests itself in lower rates of army conscripts from more modern areas like Tel-Aviv or Haifa. The burden of army service has fallen on the more traditional ideological communities. Those communities were often mentioned in the casualty reports in the last war between Israel and the Hamas.
It does look like Benjamin Netanyahu will win the election. There are clear differences between him and his prime rival foreign minister Zippi Livni but those differences may mean little to the Arab side. They want a complete withdrawal of Israel forces to pre 1967 lines. Without any compromise at all. No Israeli leader will agree to such far reaching concessions. The outgoing prime minister tried valiantly to leave office with a peace treaty of sorts and was as concession oriented as possible. The Palestinians were not interested. It’s all or nothing from their perspective.
It will be fun anyway.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
War in the Gaza strip
Well here we go again,
Israel is about to initiate another severe military action against the Hamas in the Gaza strip. This cease fire did not last as long as even the pessimists thought it would. It has broken down with some deadly missiles barely missing a kindergarten and another rocket injuring three people. It’s unclear whether Olmert understands that the Army cannot leave territory that it captures in the strip. It needs simply to destroy the Hamas army and kill all its soldiers. Nothing less will do.
The Israeli military has seemed to make a major comeback after a particular bad showing in the second Lebanon war a number of years ago. Its showing in Israel’s offensive that ended with a unilateral cease fire was impressive. It will need to be in top form as there seems to be no real choice but the complete eradication of the Hamas. The Hamas has gained confidence in all the flack that Israel and its military have received from around the world. It believes Olmert and his government will not be capable in really pressing ahead. Olmert may completely surprise them and even himself as politically he has nothing to lose. His term as prime minister is about to end and he doesn’t want to be remembered as a loser.
If Israel does react hard and the military merry go round continues there will be elections during war time. That will be a first for Israel and may have practical results as many soldiers will not be able to vote. The soldiers generally vote more right wing.
We will all have to wait to see what happens.
It won’t be pretty
Israel is about to initiate another severe military action against the Hamas in the Gaza strip. This cease fire did not last as long as even the pessimists thought it would. It has broken down with some deadly missiles barely missing a kindergarten and another rocket injuring three people. It’s unclear whether Olmert understands that the Army cannot leave territory that it captures in the strip. It needs simply to destroy the Hamas army and kill all its soldiers. Nothing less will do.
The Israeli military has seemed to make a major comeback after a particular bad showing in the second Lebanon war a number of years ago. Its showing in Israel’s offensive that ended with a unilateral cease fire was impressive. It will need to be in top form as there seems to be no real choice but the complete eradication of the Hamas. The Hamas has gained confidence in all the flack that Israel and its military have received from around the world. It believes Olmert and his government will not be capable in really pressing ahead. Olmert may completely surprise them and even himself as politically he has nothing to lose. His term as prime minister is about to end and he doesn’t want to be remembered as a loser.
If Israel does react hard and the military merry go round continues there will be elections during war time. That will be a first for Israel and may have practical results as many soldiers will not be able to vote. The soldiers generally vote more right wing.
We will all have to wait to see what happens.
It won’t be pretty
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