The great lie

There will be no agreement between Iran and the west on a nuclear deal.
The whole point of Irans nuclear program is to develop a nuclear arsenal.
Any deal that curtails that is inconceivable, it will not happen.
Iran will attempt to show some progress and is probably developing illegally weapons that it needs more time to finish.
The weakness of the west in dealing with Iran will have the most serious repercussions.
The United States congress will likely add biting sanctions to the already existing ones.
The military option all have dreaded will be brought up again as a final option to stop the Iranians.
There seems to be no other choice as diplomacy is really going nowhere.
War looms and that prospect is a grim one indeed.
Those who are afraid of war will need to wage war to survive, those who are ready to fight will not need to. It is coming.
Won't be pretty

They are finally getting it

The world is finally waking up to the reality that a Palestinian state will not happen at least in the foreseeable future
This reality will go very far at starting to seek a real solution to the conflict of Israel and the Arabs residing in Israel.
Bibi said it and Obama believes him and most sane people understand that this is a non-starter.
Continuing to speak about something that will never happen and pretending that it will is counterproductive to say the least.
The test of Bibi and his government is the alternative to the Palestinian state that will not happen.
Doing nothing is no policy and will not work in the long run.
Someone needs to introduce a bill that annexes large parts of Judea and Samaria where there is a clear majority of Jews.
There are very large areas that massive building project can be started.
This won't be easy but a prime minister needs to translate ideology into action on the ground.
It is likely that this will not happen so fast as the world has grown accustomed to the fraud of a Palestinian state.
The first step needs to be massive building in these areas and if possible a survey or referendum of some kind of the Arab residents as to what they want.
This might be tricky and needs to be thought out clearly.
There might be some kind of violent reaction by some Arabs or threats before during and after any decision but this threat is always in the air.
So nothing new there.
The Israeli government needs to build massively in all areas of Judea and Samaria killing even the slightest notion of a Palestinian state.
These measures will even bring down the high cost of housing as the supply will rise and demand will fall.
Bibi will be told this by his by some of his future ministers.
One can expect different tactics of the Palestinian authority going forward.
This will not bring them much traction to them.
It's not really going anywhere.
The peace process that is.
It's going to be very interesting.
Lets see what happens.

The State of Palestine

Never has so much been written or spoken about something that will never happen.
A Palestinian state has become the obsession of the world.
It does not matter that it has become an impossibility for so many reasons.
It does not matter that there are already two states of this kind, Jordan and Aza.
It does not matter that the Arabs have rejected this idea from two different prime ministers.
It does not matter that the Israeli public is against this idea.
Nothing matters.
It is still being discussed as if it it is about to happen.
It will not happen.
Not because the writer of these words wishes it should not happen but because it is an impossibility for the following reasons.
The conditions put forth by the Palestinians for a state are ones no Israeli leader can accept.
Many have tried including Ahud Olmert and Ehud Barack who were very eager to agree on such a state and were extremely generous in their concessions.
Each time the offer was turned down.
There is no room for the roughly 500,000 Jewish settlers who live in the areas that this Palestinian state is supposed to be in.
There is also no police force or military force capable of forcibly removing so many people from Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem.
The concept is a non-starter and cannot happen.
With this backdrop status the residents of Judea and Samaria need to be established in the short and long term.
Arabs living in the C area where the overwhelming majority are Jewish will be offered full citizenship.
All others can be offered partial citizenship or full citizenship to Jordan.
If they wish to stay together in a autonomous framework that is also possible.
The bottom line is that is it impossible for a Palestinian state to be created.
Israel is headed to a new reality in the next four years.
Those who really want to help the Arab residents of Judea and Samaria will stop talking about a Palestinian state.
They will start worrying about the needs of those people and trying to better their lives.
It will take a while to rid the world of the concept of the Palestinian state.
Better late then never.

No real chance for left in Israel

Bibi Netanyahu has won an astounding victory in the Israeli elections.
After so many wars and terrorist attacks few people trust anyone willing to trust in any way Israel enemies.
Those politicians on the left that think they can convince Israeli voters to endanger Israel in worthless peace treaties are waking up to reality this morning.
The left has no chance in the next 25 years to rule Israel.
It can continue to talk about two states for two peoples and ceding territory to its enemies.
The Israeli public does not buy these ideas and is not suicidal.
Some clear things need to be done after a new government is formed.
As Bibi has said right before the elections the idea of 2 states for 2 people needs to be buried completely.
There will never be a Palestinian state.
It will never happen.
This needs to be clear to all.
Obama needs to be told clearly even in private that this idea has left the world.
Continuing to talk about something that will never happen is counterproductive.
The king has no clothes and there is no real Palestine.
Continuing banging your head against the wall will not get anyone anywhere.
It is unclear how the Palestinian authority will react to the victory of Bibi,
It is likely to do more of the same.
Complain a lot and get nowhere.
One thing is very clear.
Left leaning policies have convinced Israeli voters that appeasement is dangerous.
The left has struck out.

The Arabs and the world await

The elections in Israel are being watched by very many people around the world.
Israels ability to stand firm on its basic security interests are being closely scrutinized.
Many of Israels enemies including Hamas and Hizbollah have mentioned the weakness of the resolve of Israel to persevere in the long run.
They perceive a constant weakness which manifests itself in Israelis leaving country and pressure from within to give in to demands that will compromise its security.
Militarily Israel seems much to strong to be defeated but they think constant pressure of war and conflict will eventually weaken it enough to destroy it.
They will see a defeat of the right wing as a sign that slowly but surely Israels resolve is weakening.
What all this means is that if the left does somehow scratch a victory in the elections.(hard to see how that will happen though) All can expect the new government to be severely tested.
What that might mean is a new Intifada or severe unrest in Judea and Samaria and attacks from the Hamas on Israels southern border.
They are very anxious that Bibi no longer will be the prime minister, very anxious.
What is also likely to happen in these elections is the realization of the Arab parties to the political strength that they have.
They may astound all by receiving 15 Kenesset seats.
They likely will become the third largest party in the Knesset and may even become the head of the opposition.
They will discover an incredible reality.
If they vote in high numbers they will essentially be able to further the dream of some which would be to turn Israel into a state of all its citizens and take away the Jewish character of the state.
This is another drama that Israels enemies are looking at and trying to see how this further weakens Israel.
The left winning outright seems unlikely but the prospect of a national unity government after all else fails seems possible if not likely.
If Bibi stays prime minister he may agree, if not he may retire from politics.
Going to be a crazy day tomorrow and not just tomorrow.

The frustrated Israeli left

Even if the main leftist party receives more votes it is unlikely that it will form Israels next government.
It just does not add up.
Labor will receive 25 or 26 mandates.
If it takes on the future party of Yair Lapid which is to receive 12-13, it will have 37-39 mandates.
If lapid joins then the ultra religous parties have vowed to have nothing to do with him.
Then it will need the Arab party which is likely to receive 12-13 seats leaving with 50-52.
Now it will need the extreme left wing party of Merezt to give it 55-57.
It then will need to "steal" a mostly right wing party of Chaclon to put it over the top.
Though this seems close to impossible it is not impossible.
What is likely is that the extreme left party of Meretz does not make the threshold needed to get into the Knesset.
Kaclons party will be weakened as many traditional voters for Likud will vote Likud once more.
If that happens then Bibi is guaranteed a reasonable chance to form a government.
The left will become even more frustrated. The big surprise in these elections may be the Arab parties which may receive more seats in parliment than ever before.
This will pose a challenge to the real democratic nature of Israel.
It will be a lot of fun.
Bottom line is that Bibi will be the next prime minister

Does not look good for Bibi

There seems to be a atmosphere of regime change in the air in Israel.
It is hard to describe and difficult to gauge but it exists and it bodes not well for the right wing and Jewish settlement in the land of Israel.
The labor party is doing well but will need help from the large Arab party that is to receive 12-13 seats in the Knesset or Israel parliament.
He will offer them a ministry for the first time in Israels history.
He will have little choice as without doing this he will not be able to form a government.
There are certainly positions that he cannot and will not give to Arabs as defense or Foreign portfolios.
As a matter of fact he cannot or will not give the other major portfolio which is the treasury to the Arab party.
What then will he offer?
They may refuse to have any real position but that would be foolish on their part.
Maybe that would become head negotiators in future peace talks? LOL
They could of course vote confidence from outside the government and labor could have a minority government.
It is technically possible though practically extremely difficult.
What likely might happen is Bibi will be forced to form a very right wing religous coalition that will not be easy to govern with.
Or there will be new elections in 3 months or so.
The circus is just starting.

Just not Bibi

Thus does not sound like a sound campaign slogan or even a tactic.
Nonetheless it is the central theme in the campaign to defeat the present prime minister in Israel.
The hatred that is shown for Bibi is almost unprecedented and potentially very dangerous.
The Israeli's left frustration with its apparent inability to regain control of the government is mounting form month to month and year to year.
It is reaching a crescendo with upcoming elections.
Everything points to another right wing government that will teeter but will function for a few years.
The left will really flip this time and it is unclear how it will react.
As always some will plan to leave Israel permanently to the US or Europe and some will just try to figure out what went wrong again.
The real danger may lay in the motivation of left leaning extremists in trying to influence military service.
This will be mitigated by those who have volunteering even more of late and taking up the the slack.
As other regional issues seem to make headlines in the world the Israel Palestinian issue seems way down the list of issues on the world agenda.
Dash and Iran have done a big disservice to those issues.
Potential coalition partners will demand some kind of annexation of Judea and Samaria on this watch and it is unclaer how that will go over.
War in Gaza may happen again with Hizbullah and Iran in the mix.
Never a dull moment in the middle east.
Bibi will be best prepared to deal with these issues.
The left should think of another slogan.
This one is not working for now.

The Israeli Left- in big trouble

All they could get to their rally was about 30,000 people.
Older demonstrations of this kind brought out many more.
It seems that the normal sane leftists do not really believe in peace talks in the foreseeable future and just bashing Bibi for the sake of bashing is not worth its time.
The sad truth is that even though the many on the left would prefer some type of settlement they understand that the partner is non existent.
As elections go it would make sense for the left to rule after so many years of the Likud.
Missiles all over the country during the summer make people think a bit and not vote for national suicide.
Paradoxically if the left did win the elections this would pave the way for the right to take over soon after.
That route might be very painful as was during the reign of Ahud Barak about ten years ago.
Bibi will be prime minister, that seems clear.
What will his coalition look like?
That is the real question.
It is hard to imagine that Bibi will bring into his government Herzog and Livni the left leaders.
He has said he would not but political reality will force his hand.
The president of the country will almost demand a national unity government and Bibi will say he was forced to do though he promised otherwise.
It will be very tense leading up to the elections but it seems highly likely that little of real substance will change after election day.
Naftali Bennet if asked will join government and become the finance minister or even foreign minister.
He will be excellent at both positions.
Bibi does not like Bennet to much as he seems like a clear threat to his own leadership.
The moderate left which will be in a difficult position will need to choose between irrelevancy in the opposition to impotency in the government.
The red herring in all this is the power of the Arab parties which seems to gain strength every week.
If they receive 15 seats it will be a political earthquake.
If because of national emergency a national unity government is formed they will be the head of the opposition.
That will bring with it all kinds of complications.
Never boring here in Israel.
Vote early, vote often.

What now?

The prime minister of Israel must feel a bit like Winston Churchill before the outbreak of WW2.
He was told that the Nazis have to be appeased and that war needed to be avoided at all costs.
The Nazis understood the weakness of the English and then started WW2.
War could have been avoided if the allies had acted decisively.
The same scenario is playing itself out now.
We are being told that Iran will not accept the complete dismantlement of its nuclear capabilities, it cannot happen.
Why should Iran agree to something that the US thinks is unrealistic?.
The real question at hand is what happens next.
If congress does not let this agreement go forward with Iran what then happens?
It is unclear to many if Israel is capable of destroying the nuclear capability of the Iranians.
It is likely even probable that Israel is ready and able to significantly reduce these capabilities.
This will be a earth shaking event as war would likely break out between Iran and Israel.
Not to mention the Hizbullah and Hamas that may very well attack if Israel preempts and strikes Iran.
As the Iranians say they will not dismantle the capabilities to strike Israel and Israel will not accept an almost nuclear Iran some simple conclusions can be drawn.
War.
It seems to be what will happen.
The US may avoid all this by standing firm.
Signing an agreement with Iran is not peace in our time.
Anyone who wants to avoid war should be ready to fight.
History has taught us this.

Benjamin Netanyahu and the speech before Congress

The Prime minister of Israel is on his way to Washington for the speech that will define his entire life.
His entire immediate family have dedicated its life to fighting terrorism and defending Israel.
Both his brothers were members of the elite commando unit Sayeret Matcal that has been involved in countless missions.
The most famous of course being the raid to free hostages from Entebbe Uganda on the 4th of July 1976.
Bibis brother was killed in that operation.
He know needs to explain to a battle weary world the imminent danger of a nuclear Iran.
Just as Neville Chamberlain tried to appease the Nazis before WW2 so to the west is trying to avoid war by appeasement.
The Prime Minister will say what needs to be said.
Israel will not be Czechoslovakia of the 20th century and will not participate in the experiment of the west to appease Iran.
The entire reason for some of the formation of Israel was to avoid another catastrophe of the Jewish people.
It is the real money time for Israel.
It does not and will not accept the treaty that is to be signed.
It does not and will not accept a treaty that endangers the future of the Jewish people.
The Jews will rise up and destroy the capabilities of the Iranians to produce nuclear weapons.
It will do so when there is no other choice.
President Obama can avoid this very dangerous scenario by not signing any agreement that does not guarantee that Iran cannot reach bomb making capabilities.
Bibi must make it very clear that Israel will attack Iran when the threat becomes urgent.
The United States and the world needs to know that Israel means business and any agreement must be rock solid with 0% chance of non adherence.
War with Iran is not something Israel wants certainly but many of the wars were forced upon it.
Israel will prevail.
Bibi is trying to avoid this very difficult scenario.
Congress can force Obamas hand.
Lets hope he is successful.
All can be sure that the IDF is ready to destroy Irans nuclear facilities if ordered to do so.
The Jews will not go the slaughter again, we will fight.
Obama and his backers be damned.
Never again.