The war of attrition on the Gaza strip border is becoming unmanagable.
No on in Israel really wants to send the Israeli army back into the strip any time soon.
There will be casualties and the outcome of taking control over the strip with its two million people is not tempting to say the least.
The army is waiting for the rains to come that might limit damage that incendiary balloons cause.
Bizarre tactics for a powerhouse army like the IDF.
There are limitations of strength.
The thought of horror of and people crisis in the strip hae made the IDF just try to wait it out for the winter.
It won't work and the IDF knows it.
War will break out soonr or later and its up to the commanders to figure out how to enter the strip with minimum or no casualties at all.
A tall task indeed.
There will likely be a direct assault from the sea and border to try to quickly kill the main Hamas and Jihad terrorists and declare martial law.
This plan is being rehearsed over and over.
Egypt will be asked possibly to act as a mediator once the IDF is in charge one more.
There will be a hunt for all the senior Hamas operatives.
All these options are very bad ones.
That is why the IDF is not entering the strip now.
It will happen sooner or later.
Just a matter of time.
Monday, October 8, 2018
Sunday, July 15, 2018
Israel and the Gaza Strip
Another violent and bloody confrontation between Hamas and Israel.
Hundreds of rockets shot into Israel while Irael retaliates.
When might this end?
There is no real solution to all this.
The constant war of attrition is unaceptable and unsustainable.
Reentering the strip and staying there after leaving it many years ago will be very dificult as Israel will take responsibility for all the mess in the strip.
And do it goes another br? rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrround of violence that goes nowhere.
Eventually the IDF will need to retake the strip and when that happens it will be ugly very ugly.
It was close this time.
Very close
Hundreds of rockets shot into Israel while Irael retaliates.
When might this end?
There is no real solution to all this.
The constant war of attrition is unaceptable and unsustainable.
Reentering the strip and staying there after leaving it many years ago will be very dificult as Israel will take responsibility for all the mess in the strip.
And do it goes another br? rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrround of violence that goes nowhere.
Eventually the IDF will need to retake the strip and when that happens it will be ugly very ugly.
It was close this time.
Very close
Thursday, July 5, 2018
US Iran crisis
Iran has threatened to close the straits of Hormuz if there is an embargo of exports of Iranian oil.
That would be an act of war.
The spectacle of a military confrontation between Iran and the US is becoming increasingly likely in the wake of new sanctions.
There is clearly no match between the the two navies but that may mean very little.
Iran may use a confrontation with the US as a rallying cry to unite its people in the wake of severe economic hardship.
It might be the only thing that will save the regime in Teheran.
A war between the US and Teheran?
Might happen.
That would be an act of war.
The spectacle of a military confrontation between Iran and the US is becoming increasingly likely in the wake of new sanctions.
There is clearly no match between the the two navies but that may mean very little.
Iran may use a confrontation with the US as a rallying cry to unite its people in the wake of severe economic hardship.
It might be the only thing that will save the regime in Teheran.
A war between the US and Teheran?
Might happen.
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
The Palestinian Authority, whats next?
Israel has just enacted a law to deduct from all payments to the Palestinian Authority money being payed out to the family of terrorists.
The PA has said another
So many Red lines lines have been crossed over the years that few pay attention any more.
The real question is how long will Abu Mazen live and what is the next step for the PA.
As the US peace plan is about to be launched and promptly rejected by the PA it is hard to see how things are to improve.
They will not of course.
The PA in Ramalla and the Hamas in Gaza are out of money.
when they reject the American peace initiative they will likely cease to receive money from many Arab countries.
It is just a matter of time until the PA collapses and turns into complete chaos.
Hard to say how this will play out.
The PA has said another
Red
line has been crossed.So many Red lines lines have been crossed over the years that few pay attention any more.
The real question is how long will Abu Mazen live and what is the next step for the PA.
As the US peace plan is about to be launched and promptly rejected by the PA it is hard to see how things are to improve.
They will not of course.
The PA in Ramalla and the Hamas in Gaza are out of money.
when they reject the American peace initiative they will likely cease to receive money from many Arab countries.
Hard to say how this will play out.
Monday, July 2, 2018
Chaos in Iran
What is to happen in Iran is very difficult to ascertain.
It is likely that the economy will collapse in the next few months as sanctions start to bite.
The question that remains is whether it will be enough to topple the government.
It does not seem likely that any economic collapse will lead to a new revolution.
All hope that the government will fall as the late Shaw fell.
Hard to see a coup that will oust the present leadership.
If that's the case Iran may continue to limp through will the nuclear deal with all other partners.
It is hard to see them upgrading their nuclear program and risking a military strike from the US.
They must believe that Trump will not hesitate to strike if there is a perceived threat to the US or Israel.
They are not sure what to do.
They will finally need to renegotiate the nuclear pact if they feel their rule is in danger.
It is hard seeing them crawling back to the table under almost any circumstances.
Hard to say what might happen now.
Lets wait and see.
It is likely that the economy will collapse in the next few months as sanctions start to bite.
The question that remains is whether it will be enough to topple the government.
It does not seem likely that any economic collapse will lead to a new revolution.
All hope that the government will fall as the late Shaw fell.
Hard to see a coup that will oust the present leadership.
If that's the case Iran may continue to limp through will the nuclear deal with all other partners.
It is hard to see them upgrading their nuclear program and risking a military strike from the US.
They must believe that Trump will not hesitate to strike if there is a perceived threat to the US or Israel.
They are not sure what to do.
They will finally need to renegotiate the nuclear pact if they feel their rule is in danger.
It is hard seeing them crawling back to the table under almost any circumstances.
Hard to say what might happen now.
Lets wait and see.
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
The deal of the Century
It is hard to believe that the smartest or best intentioned people can solve a problem that is inherently insolvable.
The deal of the century as it is being called cannot solve a conflict that is defined by the continuation of the conflict.
The Palestinain authority and the other factions in the Gaza strip are defined by the "struggle".
There is no peace deal that can be proposed that can solve the issue.
There cannot be and will not be a Palastinain state with East Jerusalem as its capital .
The Arabs know deep down that Israel will never relinqiush control over the temple mount and the Western Wall.
The Arab side has said clearly that there is no interest in any plan that does not consist of a complete withdrawal from all areas captured in 1967.
Israel will never ever do this.
The moderate Arab states who used the Palestiain issue to harm Israel have much more important things on their mind now.
Its all a great waste of time.
May cause a war when it all hits the fan.
The deal of the century as it is being called cannot solve a conflict that is defined by the continuation of the conflict.
The Palestinain authority and the other factions in the Gaza strip are defined by the "struggle".
There is no peace deal that can be proposed that can solve the issue.
There cannot be and will not be a Palastinain state with East Jerusalem as its capital .
The Arabs know deep down that Israel will never relinqiush control over the temple mount and the Western Wall.
The Arab side has said clearly that there is no interest in any plan that does not consist of a complete withdrawal from all areas captured in 1967.
Israel will never ever do this.
The moderate Arab states who used the Palestiain issue to harm Israel have much more important things on their mind now.
Its all a great waste of time.
May cause a war when it all hits the fan.
Saturday, June 23, 2018
Trump peace plan
President Trumps Son in Law Jared Kushner and special envoy to the Middle East Jason Greenblatt are to announce very soon a new Peace plan.
Many have tried and not succeeded to do this.
To be skeptical as to the viability of a workable deal seems reasonable.
Nonetheless Trump has been doing seemingly impossible things of late in many areas so it is difficult to completely rule out some progress.
The plan will be regional and will involve all parties to conflict.
It will involve massive amounts of money destined to build infrastructure in the Gaza strip and elsewhere.The main problems seem to be the lack of real transparency in the Palestinian authority and the dictatorship in the Gaza strip.
It is hard to say what really might happen when plan is placed on table but likely very little.
The basic problem was and remains that Israel is not being accepted as a Jewish State
The Arab side is waiting for a different president to get concessions from the Israelis.
It is possible that a combo of the death of Machmoud Abas And a complete collapse of rule in Gaza might shake things up a bit.
It is hard to see any real long term solution to this mess of over 100 years.
Trump after all cannot do the impossible.
Many have tried and not succeeded to do this.
To be skeptical as to the viability of a workable deal seems reasonable.
Nonetheless Trump has been doing seemingly impossible things of late in many areas so it is difficult to completely rule out some progress.
The plan will be regional and will involve all parties to conflict.
It will involve massive amounts of money destined to build infrastructure in the Gaza strip and elsewhere.The main problems seem to be the lack of real transparency in the Palestinian authority and the dictatorship in the Gaza strip.
It is hard to say what really might happen when plan is placed on table but likely very little.
The basic problem was and remains that Israel is not being accepted as a Jewish State
The Arab side is waiting for a different president to get concessions from the Israelis.
It is possible that a combo of the death of Machmoud Abas And a complete collapse of rule in Gaza might shake things up a bit.
It is hard to see any real long term solution to this mess of over 100 years.
Trump after all cannot do the impossible.
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