Thursday, August 3, 2017

The quiet before the storm

The PA or Palestinian authority is in deep crisis.
Two of the major figures of the PA have severe health issues and may die very soon.
Saeb Berekat who has headed negotiations for the PA for over twenty years is suffering from an acute lung disease which will likely kill him.
Ironically he awaits a lung transplant from an Israeli source to survive.
This is the Israel he has accused for so long as being racist and genocidal.
The head of the PA is also suffering from health issues as rumors are saying different things as to how severe they might be.
If these two figures will go the vacuum that will be created will be substantive.
How all this will change the nature of the conflict is truly hard to predict.
To make things more complicated Hamas is simply destroying itself in the Gaza strip.
It has insisted on preparing for war with Israel instead of trying to rebuild infrastructure in the strip.
It has destroyed the Gaza Strip.
The breakdown of both the PA and Hamas may lead to a breakthrough in the never ending conflict.
President Asisi of Egypt has agreed to give a chunk of Sinai to extend the area of the palestinian area in the Gaza strip.
This idea has been bandied about for a while and now seems to make more sense.
The beleaguered Hamas and PA may agree to take this area and make it its "state"
This might be a adhoc solution for some issues that there seems to be no solution.
The refugee issue which has no real solution could be solved with refugees going to this new area.
The problem is that no one will want to go to a desolate area run by a jihadist extreme organization to live in abject poverty.
Nonetheless this idea may improve somewhat the situation and allow some sort of quiet fro a few years.
The Hamas with all its bellicosity is in a very weal position and is not ready to go to war with Israel.
They have built tunnels and made rockets but are not ready to fight.
Hard to say what will play out.
Israels military is very ready to take over the strip in case of war in a few days.
The next war will be the end of Hamas rule in the Strip.
Hamas seems to sense this and is very hesitant to start a conflict.
Seems to quiet.
That is disconcerting.

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