Sunday, March 2, 2014

Peace negotiations

The merry go round continues to around.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is about to land in the United States.
He presumably will be presented with a agreement of sorts from John Kerry about a framework agreement.
He will be pressured by Barack Obama to accept a agreement.
It is very hard to understand what type of framework agreement can be presented.
The chief Palastnian negotiater Saab Baarekat has just recently said for the hundreth time that there will be no recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people. He reiterated this saying it was " unthinkable ".
Meanwhile there seems to be complete confusion in Washington as to what to now.
There is a clear understanding that the talks will fail as all others have failed before.
As an incredible stroke of bad luck on Obamas and Kerry's part a looming crisis in Ukraine may put the Israeli Palestinian issue on the back burner.
The truth of the matter is that the two state solution is dead and that it was never a real option.
That cold reality is staring to sink in to everybody.
The question is what happens next?
Three possible scenarios
1. The Palestinian athourity resigns and tells israel to " take over " Judea and Samaria.
2. Both Israel and the Palestinains take unilteral steps. The Palestinain steps would be a one sided declartion of independence in all of pre 1967 borders. The Israeli steps would include anexing parts of Judea and Samaria.
3. A third Intifada or uprising of the Palestinians
There may be some variations of some of these scenarios together.
There is Zero chance of any agreement and a slight chance of agreeing to continue to talk for another period of time.
It will be a big mess

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