Sunday, March 15, 2015

The frustrated Israeli left

Even if the main leftist party receives more votes it is unlikely that it will form Israels next government.
It just does not add up.
Labor will receive 25 or 26 mandates.
If it takes on the future party of Yair Lapid which is to receive 12-13, it will have 37-39 mandates.
If lapid joins then the ultra religous parties have vowed to have nothing to do with him.
Then it will need the Arab party which is likely to receive 12-13 seats leaving with 50-52.
Now it will need the extreme left wing party of Merezt to give it 55-57.
It then will need to "steal" a mostly right wing party of Chaclon to put it over the top.
Though this seems close to impossible it is not impossible.
What is likely is that the extreme left party of Meretz does not make the threshold needed to get into the Knesset.
Kaclons party will be weakened as many traditional voters for Likud will vote Likud once more.
If that happens then Bibi is guaranteed a reasonable chance to form a government.
The left will become even more frustrated. The big surprise in these elections may be the Arab parties which may receive more seats in parliment than ever before.
This will pose a challenge to the real democratic nature of Israel.
It will be a lot of fun.
Bottom line is that Bibi will be the next prime minister

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