Sunday, March 8, 2015

The Israeli Left- in big trouble

All they could get to their rally was about 30,000 people.
Older demonstrations of this kind brought out many more.
It seems that the normal sane leftists do not really believe in peace talks in the foreseeable future and just bashing Bibi for the sake of bashing is not worth its time.
The sad truth is that even though the many on the left would prefer some type of settlement they understand that the partner is non existent.
As elections go it would make sense for the left to rule after so many years of the Likud.
Missiles all over the country during the summer make people think a bit and not vote for national suicide.
Paradoxically if the left did win the elections this would pave the way for the right to take over soon after.
That route might be very painful as was during the reign of Ahud Barak about ten years ago.
Bibi will be prime minister, that seems clear.
What will his coalition look like?
That is the real question.
It is hard to imagine that Bibi will bring into his government Herzog and Livni the left leaders.
He has said he would not but political reality will force his hand.
The president of the country will almost demand a national unity government and Bibi will say he was forced to do though he promised otherwise.
It will be very tense leading up to the elections but it seems highly likely that little of real substance will change after election day.
Naftali Bennet if asked will join government and become the finance minister or even foreign minister.
He will be excellent at both positions.
Bibi does not like Bennet to much as he seems like a clear threat to his own leadership.
The moderate left which will be in a difficult position will need to choose between irrelevancy in the opposition to impotency in the government.
The red herring in all this is the power of the Arab parties which seems to gain strength every week.
If they receive 15 seats it will be a political earthquake.
If because of national emergency a national unity government is formed they will be the head of the opposition.
That will bring with it all kinds of complications.
Never boring here in Israel.
Vote early, vote often.

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